Oddsmaker thinks Tom Brady is 2nd-most likely to win MVP in 2018

Oddsmaker Bovada released their odds for the 2018 NFL Regular Season MVP and New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady enters the season in second place with 7/1 odds (12.5%). Brady trails only Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (13/2 odds, 13.3%).

The rest of the top five is filled by other quarterbacks, with Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (19/2) in third and New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees and Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson tied for fourth (15/1).

Former Patriots quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is tied with 2015 NFL MVP Cam Newton, 2016 NFL MVP Matt Ryan, and Houston Texans phenom Deshaun Watson at 20/1.

Brady has an uphill battle to win MVP for a couple reasons. First, he’s always held to a different standard of excellence due to his track record and because Bill Belichick is his coach.

Second, the Patriots roster is extremely strong and Brady needed to lose a handful of key players on offense- top receivers Julian Edelman and Malcolm Mitchell, and All Pro right tackle Marcus Cannon- to gain recognition for his play. If the Patriots are healthy in 2018 (knock on wood), that hurts Brady’s MVP candidacy.

The list of repeat MVP winners is short, mostly in part due to the expected regression coming off an exemplary season. Peyton Manning was the last player to win back-to-back MVP awards, managing the feat in both 2008-09 and 2003-04. Joe Montana was the first to win back-to-back in 1989-90, while Brett Favre managed a three-peat from 1995-97. That’s the full list.

Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski is the only other member of the team to receive odds and Gronk’s are slim at 100/1.