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POLL: Will Patriots QB Tom Brady hit the over or under on these predictions?

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How will Tom Brady perform in 2018?

NFL: New England Patriots-Minicamp Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is coming off an MVP season and he showed no sign of decline. Can he produce a repeat season? Oddsmaker betonline.ag created some player prop bets for 2018 and I want to see what our readers think of Brady’s chances next season.

Passing Yards: Over/Under 4,675

Poll

4,675 passing yards

This poll is closed

  • 31%
    Over
    (304 votes)
  • 68%
    Under
    (666 votes)
970 votes total Vote Now

Brady led the league with 4,577 passing yards in 2017, and yet this over/under is set nearly 100 yards greater. Brady would have to average 292.2 passing yards per game over a full 16-game season- a feat he’s accomplished just four times (2007, 2011, 2012, 2015; He exceeded the pace over 12 games in 2016).

I don’t doubt that Brady is capable of hitting the over, but there are a handful of concerns. Julian Edelman is suspended for four games and coming off an ACL injury, while Danny Amendola is no longer available. That means someone else will have to step up other than Rob Gronkowski (who also has to remain healthy). Factor in the increased investment in running backs and it’s unlikely that Brady will once again lead the league in passing yards.

I’m choosing the under.

Touchdown Passes: Over/Under 32.5

Poll

32.5 touchdown passes

This poll is closed

  • 66%
    Over
    (662 votes)
  • 33%
    Under
    (341 votes)
1003 votes total Vote Now

Brady threw 32 touchdowns in 2017 and would have to average 2.04 touchdown passes per game to hit the over. He’s exceeded that pace in 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, and 2016 (albeit over 12 games).

Since that impressive 2007 season, Brady’s failed to hit that mark just three times. In 2009, Brady was returning from an ACL injury, and in 2013 pretty much everyone else on offense suffered serious injuries. He barely missed the mark in 2017.

If Brady and company are relatively healthy for the 2018 season, I’m taking the over on touchdown passes.

Interceptions: Over/Under 9.5

Poll

9.5 interceptions

This poll is closed

  • 11%
    Over
    (117 votes)
  • 88%
    Under
    (868 votes)
985 votes total Vote Now

Brady threw 8 interceptions in 2017 and hasn’t reached double digits since that awful 2013 campaign. He’s hit in the under in 7 of his past 10 seasons, with the exceptions being 2009 (return from ACL), 2011 (he carried the entire team), and 2013 (dreadful year).

So unless Brady and the Patriots are going through a historically bad year (2009, 2013) or there’s a total eclipse and Brady throws five interceptions against the Buffalo Bills (2011), then Brady’s a good bet for the under on interceptions.

What do you think?