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After three straight blowout wins, the New England Patriots found themselves in a dog fight in Week 4. Playing on the road against the Buffalo Bills, the team struggled to get into a rhythm offensively but could trust its defense to keep the opponent at bay. Thanks to the unit’s performance — it forced four turnovers and five sacks on the day while giving up just 10 points — the Patriots head into Week 5 with a perfect 4-0 record.
Their opponent, on the other hand, remains winless four games into the season. Coming off a 24-3 loss against the New York Giants, the Washington Redskins find themselves among the worst teams in the league at the moment — one of five to not yet register a victory. Naturally, head coach Jay Gruden’s club enters the game against the Patriots as a clear underdog despite playing at home.
A look at the numbers shows just how big of a favorite the Patriots are heading into Sunday’s contest (via Oddsshark):
Odds: Patriots -15.5
Over/under: 43.5
The Patriots being more than two-touchdown favorites to win on Sunday and improve to 5-0 is no surprise when looking at the teams beyond their respective records. New England, for example, has the number five scoring offense in the NFL and also fields its top defense. Washington, on the other hand, ranks 28th in points scored and 31st in points surrendered — all while facing uncertainty at the quarterback position.
The oddsmakers are therefore not the only ones to see the reigning world champions as the clear-cut favorites to win the game. Advanced statistics website FiveThirtyEight also thinks that the Patriots will defeat its opponent quite handily as a look at the calculated win probability shows:
New England: 80%
Washington: 20%
Both the point spread and FiveThirtyEight’s winning percentage differential are tops in the NFL this week. And if the numbers are to be believed, one should expect the Patriots to return to the blowout territory they have been in for their first three games of the season.