While the New England Patriots started slowly into their Week 5 meeting with the Washington Redskins and found themselves trailing for the first time in a game all season, they rebounded nicely and ultimately won in blowout fashion: the Patriots’ formidable defense returned to its shut-down levels giving up a long touchdown in the first quarter, and the offense found its mojo in the third. The result was a 33-7 blowout.
New England’s upcoming game against the New York Giants is also expected to go that way, at least if the oddsmakers and statisticians are to be believed. The reigning world champions have opened the week as enormous favorites against a Giants team that is 2-3 and relying on a rookie quarterback — first-round selection Daniel Jones — to carry an offense that has had its ups and downs.
Add it all up, and you get why the odds are in the Patriots’ favor two days away from the teams’ primetime matchup (via Oddsshark):
Odds: Patriots - 16.5
The Patriots being more than two-touchdown favorites to win on Thursday and improve to 6-0 is no surprise when looking at the two contestants: the home team fields the NFL’s best defense and an offense that put up 33 points in Washington despite some inconsistent execution; the visitors are coming off an ugly 28-10 loss against the Minnesota Vikings that saw their defense give up 211 rushing yards and the offense struggle for four quarters.
This is also why the calculated win probability clearly favors the Patriots heading into the contest (via FiveThirtyEight):
New England: 90%
New York: 10%
Both the point spread and FiveThirtyEight’s winning percentage differential are tops in the NFL this week. And if those numbers are to be believed, one should expect the Patriots to beat their second straight NFC East opponent in blowout fashion. That being said, Thursday Night Football often seems to follow its own rules due to the short preparation time — “Any Given
Sunday Thursday” therefore cannot be underestimated.