FanPost

Draft Day: It's time to question Bill Belichick


Disclaimer: Bill Belichick is the greatest coach of all time, and likely the greatest GM of all time. This is my belief and it's hard to question the man much like it's hard to criticize Tom Brady's play. But they are both human, Bill is human and he's made some very obvious mistakes.

The cupboard has run bare. Perhaps that is a bit overstated, a bit dramatic, but it's almost true. Belichick the 'drafter' has made mistakes no one can defend such as the famed "Jordan Richards" and "Tavon Wilson" selections. But ultimately his overall GM abilities, coaching abilities, and Brady have largely covered up any blemishes.

NFL drafts aren't an exact science. Everyone misses, sometimes you get unlucky. But I am simply posing the question and observing the data to see if Belichick has screwed up or drafted poorly in recent years. You could call this a cherry-pick but I am starting 6 years back, and trust me 7 years back doesn't look much prettier.

I will be using a subjective A-F grading scale on relevant picks, marking players still with the team with an *

2014 Patriots Draft:

1st (29) Dominique Easley ; F- injury and character red flags, bust.

2nd (62) Jimmy Garoppolo ; A- started and won two games, played well, flipped for the 43rd pick in 2018.

4th (105) Bryan Stork ; B- majority of season starter in SB 2014 season, (concussion) injury prone, 1.5 seasons retired

4th (130) *James White ; A+ 3x SB champion, best receiving back in Patriots history probably, top-tier receiving RB

4th (140) Cameron Fleming ; C+ serviceable swing tackle found in late 4th round.

The rest: Three 6th rounders and a 7th, Halapio plays in the league so he gets a C+ for his position, everyone else did nothing and none impacted the Patriots. Late rounders can't be graded easily, but no production at all is obviously not "Good" yet is par for the course here. C- overall.

2015 Patriots Draft:

1st (32) Malcolm Brown ; C contributed in last year's SB victory, decent production, very average for a late 1st rounder

2nd (64) Jordan Richards ; F----- Prime example of a Belichick reach. Trash pick, would be there at 156

3rd (97) Geneo Grissom ; D+ stuck with the team for 3+ seasons but barely played defensively, C- at best but D+

4th (101) Trey Flowers ; A 3 years of production only in NE, great player but only the straight A. ~top 100 pick also

4th (111) Tre' Jackson ; C- gave us a season of production, injury derailed career. C- may be generous here.

4th (131) *Shaq Mason ; A+ an all-pro caliber guard in stints, very good guard at 131 overall. Easy A+

5th (166) *Joe Cardona ; C+ a long snapper drafted rather high, maybe a B-? Cool I guess.

The rest: two 6ths and two 7ths, A.J. Derby and Darryl Roberts highlight this group of late rounders. None contributed with the Patriots really, another C- for the late rounders.

2016 Patriots Draft:

2nd (60) Cyrus Jones ; F at least had some talent unlike Richards, still a bust here for 60th overall and 1st pick.

3rd (78) *Joe Thuney ; A struggled early on but improved greatly, very good guard. 78th overall makes this an A not +

3rd (91) Jacoby Brissett ; B- serviceable back up, 1-1 record here. Flipped for Phillip Dorsett. Done more w/ Colts

3rd (96) Vincent Valentine ; D played one season here, cut very early for a 3rd rounder.

4th (112) Malcolm Mitchell ; C listen I love Mitchell, for the one year? A- but he only played one year, injuries suck.

The rest: Finally hitting on some late guys, Grugier Hill is talented but we cut him so he doesn't count much, Elandon Roberts has played a role on this time for the past few years, and Ted Karras is a capable back up who has started at center for us most of the 2019 season. B+

2017 Patriots Draft:

3rd (83) *Derek Rivers ; F so far, first pick and hasn't contributed at all. mid-late 3rd rounder, has done nothing. Injury*

3rd (85) Antonio Garcia ; F as well. Might be unfair but again injury* here and there's zero production from a 3rd.

4th (131) *Deatrich Wise ; B- he has flashed at times, had produced and done some things. Perhaps a B is deserved

The rest: What a depleted draft. Only a 6th rounder Conor McDermott remains, so I guess C- or C considering he's in the league still. All future grades will be "in progress" more so here on out.

2018 Patriots Draft:

1st (23) *Isaiah Wynn ; C listen, I'm a Wynn defender and believer. But he's played 4.1 out of 29 games as the 23rd pick

1st (31) *Sony Michel ; D+ it's a value thing. Drafting a RB in the 1st is just stupid, and Sony is not special in either phase

2nd (56) Duke Dawson ; F- Here's where I begin to question Belchick. Commander redshirt and DB hoarder specialist

5th (143) *Ja'Whaun Bentley; B+ promising young ILB, coverage may be limited, perhaps a B or B- is more apt

The rest: Oh we got Berrios here, but comically enough Ryan Izzo is the last man standing and was giving decent yet pedestrian production prior to a concussion this year. C+ - the rest of the grades will be based on 13 games / projection

2019 Patriots Draft:

1st (32) *N'Keal Harry ; D- 9 games missed, 3 TDs: 1 official, 1 unofficial, 1 for the Texans. Maybe a D is fair or an F

2nd (45) *JoeJuan Williams ; D Here's commander redshirt at it again, 6 games, 31 defensive snaps, 47 ST snaps

3rd (77) *Chase Winovich ; B+ contributing right away, 5.5 sacks, nice player, but what's the ceiling?

3rd (87) *Damien Harris ; D Lord commander of the Red-Shirt Watch Belichick wants another to ride the pine

3rd (101) *Yodny Cajuste ; F basically used a top 100 pick on a guy with huge medical flags missing a year at...OT

4th (118) *Hjalte Froholdt ; C- looked bad in preseason, injured missed entire season. Maybe deserves a D to D+

4th (133) *Jarrett Stidham ; C? Threw a pick 6 but not sure what to grade him off of. C- to C, whatever.

5th (159) *Byron Cowart ; B Looked good and plays in actual games as a 5th rounder, big potential but injured currently

5th (163) *Jake Bailey ; A he would get an A+ but he's a punter drafted in the 5th round so...A+ if you want sure.

The rest: Ken Webster was picked up by another team our only 7th. UDFAs obviously include Meyers and J.C. Jackson + Jonathan Jones were not included in prior years because this is a draft class only thing, but they count in reality on the whole. These grades will improve over time most likely but as of right now I feel these are mostly fair.


Analysis:

Perhaps it's not a good sign when only 9 players remain on the roster over the course of 5 draft classes dating from 2014 to 2018. But it gets worse actually. Out of those 9 players? We are counting Joe Cardona - a long snapper, Derek Rivers - a tin man, and Ryan Izzo - a glorified UDFA-7th rounder who's played due to scarcity at the TE position.

The positive spin here would be that injuries killed us. Rivers, Garcia, Easley, Stork, Jackson, Mitchell.

The negative spin is that we haven't hit on anyone in the 1st or 2nd round in 5-6 years worth of drafts, sure we didn't have a 1st one year and didn't have a 1st or a 2nd in another...but we've missed on a ton of guys really. And the more noticeable thing? We haven't cultivated any late rounders into contributors or stars a la Brady/Edelman.

We have seemingly run dry in the 5th-7th rounds for the most part. This is countered by the UDFAs we all know: Jones, Jackson, Meyers and the dirt cheap signings of guys like Calhoun and one's that didn't work out even such as Melifonwu.

My objective opinion? I think we've been screwed by witch hunts, have had late picks, and have had bad injury luck in certain cases. But those can only go so far. Belichick does in fact deserve blame for the past 5-7 years of draft classes, specifically the 6 years I laid out here.

Belichick has made some egregious picks like Richards, Dawson, Easley on top of the normalcy of missing on guys like Brown, Grissom, Cyrus Jones, Rivers and Garcia. And now? It's way too early to say but it appears as if drafting J.J. Williams in the early-mid 2nd round was a luxury we couldn't afford, nor was Damien Harris in the 3rd, nor was a medical red flag OT in the 3rd who can't even play in 2019.

On top of this we took another flat out questionable pick in the 1st round with N'Keal Harry. From Malcolm Brown the eh to Sony a RB to a WR who appears more of a slot than an X.

I do hope time will make me look foolish and Cajuste will be an all-pro RT, Damien Harris will be great, Williams will be better than Chung ever was, and Harry is a stud. But as of right now? Let's call a spade a spade. This is a 32nd pick, 45th pick, 87th pick, 101st pick that have contributed next to nothing this year when we desperately need help at certain positions. We can count 77th Winovich too but let's also count 118th pick Froholdt then. Those are a lot of quality picks with zero production to show for it. It seems to be a trend over the past 5-6 drafts.

Maybe it's bad luck but our past 6 draft classes have amounted to little production outside of James White, two guards (Mason, Thuney) and one DE (Flowers).

Conclusion:

It is justified to criticize Belichick's recent drafts and direction. Brady is 42 years old, it's not the time to redshirt CBs every year and redshirt RBs for entire seasons when there is certainly a "window" here unless BB and fans believe in Jarrett Stidham who has shown nothing (or we diabolically tank a season).

Past two draft classes have provided us thus far with a LT, which is good yet injuries should be noted. But little else, a decent RB with a 1st rounder? and a pretty good edge rusher. We spent three 1sts, two 2nds, three 3rds, and two 4ths during these most recent drafts. Has the production been good? Even if we considering Wynn good, which I believe he is despite playing only 4 games really thus far...we are going to count Sony Michel, Wynn, Winovich, and...Harry? There's virtually no production outside of the first 3 guys and one is likely a bad pick objectively, in a vacuum.

Thanks for reading if you have read this far and sorry I'm not a formatting lord so this might be a bit rough.




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