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Pats Off-Season: Making the Case for the Franchise Tagging of Trent Brown

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Most folks tend to think that it is a foregone conclusion that Trent Brown will be leaving the Patriots as a Free Agent. However, I would like to make the case that the Patriots should instead apply the Franchise Tag to Trent Brown before March 5th. Or, at the very least, they should strongly consider it.

Applying the Franchise Tag for Brown at $15.6M might seem a bit impossible for the cap-strapped Pats, but as I demonstrated in a previous post, the Pats could get to $80M in cap space if they felt so inclined. And with over $80M available for 2019, paying Brown seems like a no brainer to me. Here is my rationale:

1. You Don't Lose Your Assets

Trent Brown is a starter-quality offensive tackle. Specifically, the left offensive tackle position is considered one of the important NFL positions and is paid accordingly. Brown has been a proven starter at both tackle positions and is only 25 years old. He graded well this year (his first time playing professionally at left tackle) for the entire year and had a phenomenal playoff performance. As such... he is an asset. You can't let him slip into the open market without compensation. And if Patriots sign another high-priced free agent (which I doubt... but who the hell know with the Patriots), the Patriots could lose a likely 3rd-Round compensatory pick if Brown leaves via free agency.

The Patriots gave up the 95th pick for just one year of Brown (plus a 5th round pick) and he is arguably more valuable now. If nothing else, apply the franchise tag and see if you can "sign-and-trade" him. After his 2018 performance, the Pats might be able to net a 2nd-Round draft pick for him. Perhaps he could even be traded (once he signs his tender) for a quality wide receiver.

Brown's PFF Grades: 70.6 Overall/70.9 Pass/64.6 Run/1,269 Total Snaps

While I realize that the Pro Football Focus’ grading system can be flawed at times, it is still one of the best barometers when it comes to player evaluations/comparisons... and it certainly better than personal opinion

2. Will Isaiah Wynn Even be Ready?

An Achilles' rupture is one of the toughest injuries to overcome for a football player... with the average length of recovery at about 11 months. This is a significant injury for any NFL player... but especially for a 310-lb lineman, who relies on the strength of his legs and the quickness of his feet. No one can definitely say with certainty that Isaiah Wynn will be ready to play in August... or that he will be 100%.

Approximately 1/3 of NFL players, who have ruptured their Achilles, never play another down in the NFL. And nearly all of the players who do return experience some performance decrease. Jason Peters did get back his Pro Bowl level after that specific injury... so there is some hope. But Peters had 18 months to heal and actually tore his Achilles a second time during his recovery... so it certainly appears to be a delicate process that shouldn't be rushed.

If Brown is gone and Wynn isn't ready, then who is the alternative? Perhaps not LaAdrian Waddle, as he is also a free agent. And if the Pats don't keep Brown, then they will almost certainly have to draft another offensive tackle in this year's draft... and that likely won't be a high pick. If Wynn is unavailable, do you want to protect Brady with an unproven 5th- or 6th-Round pick? If so, Brady may not survive the season.

Also, remember that Isaiah Wynn is considered to be a versatile lineman and thus able to double as both a guard or tackle for the Patriots. He could be placed on PUP for a few weeks/months and then, if healthy, used as backup nearly every position on the line.

3. Protect the GOAT (err... sorry... I mean Brady) at All Costs

People thought that Belichick was crazy for trading the 95th pick in 2018 for a RIGHT Tackle... after just selecting a top-rated OT in the first round. Why would he need 2 players to replace Nate Solder? But when Isaiah Wynn got hurt and Brown played seamlessly at LEFT Tackle... the Hoodie legend grew even more. Tackles aren't expected to equally play both sides of the line at a high level. But with Trent Brown at Brady's blind side, the Pat's offensive line was a Top-5 line in 2018 and was a big part of them winning the Super Bowl. Having quality depth on the offensive line is important for success.

Despite all his unusual regimens, Brady is not getting any younger. He is not going to routinely scramble out of the pocket. As shown in the Super Bowl, he has a tendency to get "happy feat" and gets flustered when pressured (or perhaps thinks he is getting pressure). Granted I would do the same if I had both Suh and Donald chasing me around for hours. Brady makes quick decisions and has a quick release. Although Brady doesn't require a ton of time to get a pass off, he still needs a relatively clean pocket. Brown is a known quantity and has demonstrated that he can indeed protect Brady. Paying a starting left tackle over $15M is really not that unreasonable... especially when they got a $1.9M steal in 2018.

4. Sorry Pats Fans... But Flowers is Likely Long Gone

Sure, I love Trey Flowers. No Patriot is more deserving a big contract than he. However, I believe that the Patriots value numerous quality players pressuring the QB on the defensive line... rather than a single elite player. They would prefer the entire line (including backups) making $16-18M a year (or about 10% of the cap)... rather than that salary portion going to just one individual.

The Patriots feel that they can "scheme" around any one elite defensive line player... and thus, so could other teams. But NO team can double-team four to six guys. Also, when you put all of your monetary eggs in one basket, you better hope that player continues to play at an elite level and doesn't get injured. The Patriots tend to avoid those defensive line "baskets" (just look at Chandler Jones). Finally, overpaying one player can cause significant dissension in the troops... especially when there are multiple players in one position group (such as the defensive line). You wouldn't like it if a coworker made 10x your salary and you legitimately felt that you were just as productive/important.

I hope I am wrong, but Trey Flowers' time with the Patriots is at its end. One team will offer Flowers a $80M+ contract... and the Pats won't match it. They will get their 3rd-Round compensatory pick in 2020 for him and move on. The Pats will then draft both a DT and DE in the first 3 rounds, double-dip on another DT prospect in the later rounds, and sign several reasonably priced free-agents who are looking for a chance at a ring. So if the Patriots won't pay Flowers... then who will they pay? I think they will likely opt to pay the offensive line over the the defensive line. So why not Brown for a year?

5. The Free-Agents Cupboards are Nearly Bare

Due to the lack of proven talent available in the free agent market, Trent Brown will be the most coveted tackle in the 2019 free-agent class. It is Trent Brown... and then Ja'Waun James... and then a lot of high-risk players. Perhaps the roll of the dice will pay off... or perhaps you might just crap out. If a team is looking to upgrade their offensive tackle position BEFORE the draft (so they can draft "best available"), Trent Brown is their best option. And the same is true for the Patriots.... there is not a lot of low-priced options for a quality starter (in case Wynn isn't ready).

6. The Draft is Decently Loaded... But It Is a Sellers Market

By my calculations, there are likely 10 NFL teams that feel they need at least one starting offensive tackle for 2019. These teams include: Bears, Bengals, Bills, Browns, Cardinals, Eagles, Giants, Panthers, Texans, and Vikings. Several other teams (such as Broncos, Jets, Raiders, and Redskins) will also likely look to upgrade their offensive tackle position. There are simply not enough available players in the draft to support the needs of these teams. Most draft "experts", scouts, and talent evaluators have graded about 7 offensive tackles in the 2019 class as potentially starting within 2 years. And you know that the college player evaluation process is about as reliable as a politician. Someone will absolutely need a starting offensive tackle after the draft... and the Patriots will have until mid-July to simultaneously sign Brown to a long-term deal and trade him. Or they can trade him after July 15th for just the 2019 year (assuming that they feel he is not needed to start for the Pats).

Bottom Line: Patriots should franchise Trent Brown at ~$15M and then should TAKE THEIR SWEET TIME bringing Isaiah Wynn back from his injury. Protecting Brady IS the most important thing in 2019. If Wynn heals fully, recovers his leg strength, and practices/plays well... then perhaps play them both. If Brown is truly hindering Wynn's development during the season (or if someone makes an offer that you can't refuse), then trade Brown. If not, your offensive line will likely be stacked for 2019 and you can go through this process again next spring (with a better understanding of Wynn's capabilities). Assuming no catastrophic injury, the worst-case scenario is a 3rd-Round Compensatory pick for the loss of Brown in 2011.

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