Coming off a decisive 30-14 victory against one division rival, the New England Patriots will head on the road this week to face off against another: the reigning world champions will travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills — a team that is sitting atop the AFC East in a tie with the Patriots. Both teams are entering their Week 4 meeting with perfect 3-0 records, after all, which means that divisional supremacy is at stake (at least for now).
Despite Buffalo having won its first three games of the regular season for the first time since 2011, however, oddsmakers think that the Patriots will come away victoriously. And why would they not? New England has won its last seven games in Western New York, and has generally looked better than its opponent even though the two teams have identical records at this point in time.
It is therefore not hard to see why the Patriots opened the week as one-touchdown favorites (via SB Nation):
Odds: Patriots -6.5
While 6.5 points does not seem like a lot, it actually is considering where the game takes place. But there is some reasoning behind the spread: New England has outscored their opponents by an average of almost 30 points over the last three games; Buffalo “just” by six. Furthermore, the average Patriots versus Bills game in Buffalo during the club’s recent winning streak ended with a score of 34.4-19.6 in favor of the visitors.
Betting on the Patriots this week is therefore no bad decision — just like every week, essentially.