After a so-so Week 2 that saw us go 17-15 overall, and 3-3 on best bets, we bounced back in a big way in Week 3, going 19-13 overall and 5-1 on best bets. The name of the game so far this season has been overs, overs, and more overs, as the lack of preseason reps seems to have had a real effect on teams to start the season, leading to some sloppy play and poor tackling.
Vegas has caught on to this trend though, as we have some sky-high O/U lines for games in Week 4.
Have any questions, comments, or just want to yell at us for no particular reason? Hit us up at @PatsPulpit, or you can reach me at @AidanCurran_ on Twitter. Let’s take a look at the board for Week 4.
Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-1.5), O/U 40.5
This spread opened up at Jets +3, but then news came down that the Broncos will be starting, er, *checks notes*... Brett Rypien?
Come on, Vegas. Please don’t make me bet on the Jets, who get back Jamison Crowder this week, as well as right tackle George Fant, and potentially left tackle Mekhi Becton. I don’t feel good betting on Adam Gase’s lowly Jets as favorites in any game, but if there’s any game this team can win, it would be this one, against a third-string quarterback and a Broncos offense missing Courtland Sutton still.
The Picks: Jets -1.5 / Under 40.5
Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5), O/U 56
Dallas’ Week 3 loss against Seattle on the road was one of the best games in Week 3. Despite not covering against the Seahawks, Dallas showed that it can still hang with the NFC elite, despite a sluggish start to the season.
The Dallas defense continues to be an issue however, and now has to face the best running back duo in the NFL in Cleveland’s Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, which should allow Cleveland to control the clock against one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.
Coming into a season with high expectations, and with Dak Prescott still looking to be paid, the Cowboys are going to be feeling the heat in trying to avoid a 1-3 start to their season. I’ll take the more talented team at home as the Cowboys look to round into shape.
The Picks: Cowboys -4.5 / Under 56
New Orleans Saints (-4) at Detroit Lions, O/U 54
After getting Kenny Golladay back, the Lions went on to score the biggest upset of Week 3, beating Arizona on a game-winning field goal by Matt Prater. If it weren’t for a late-game collapse to the Bears in Week 2, Detroit could very well be 2-1 right now.
The Saints, meanwhile, continue to have issues on both sides of the ball. Drew Brees looks old, and the Saints’ secondary is hurting them on the other side of the ball, where they have been whistled for a league-high nine pass interference calls so far this season.
This game could be a nice buy-low opportunity for the Saints, who have an outside shot at getting Michael Thomas back this week. On the other hand, getting four points for a home underdog that has a passing attack that can take advantage of a weak New Orleans secondary is tasty as well. I would wait to see if you can get Lions at +4.5 or +5 before pulling the trigger, though.
The Picks: Lions +4 / Over 54
Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-4.5), O/U 54.5
The Vikings were an upset pick last week as three-point underdogs at home against Tennessee, and almost came through straight up, losing to the Titans by just one point, but covering the three-point spread. Now, they take on a Texans team that has lost three straight to open the season, albeit to three of the top teams in the AFC.
Houston should have beaten the Steelers last week, but just could not take advantage of Pittsburgh leaving the door open for them. This team still has issues, but a game against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL could be what they need to get their season back on track.
The Picks: Texans -4.5 / Over 54.5
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Chicago Bears, O/U 43
The Bears are somehow one of the undefeated teams in the NFL right now. Yes, I’m just as shocked as you are. With Nick Foles now the Chicago starting quarterback, this game comes down to whether you think Foles is that much of an improvement over Mitchell Trubisky.
The Colts lost to Jacksonville in Week 1, but have taken care of business against the Vikings and Jets in consecutive weeks since then. The Indy defense should be a tough test for Nick Foles in his first full game as Chicago’s starter, while the Indy offense should be able to string enough drives together to win by a field goal or more.
The Picks: Colts -2.5 / Over 43
Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7), O/U 43
After losing as six-point favorites to the Panthers last week, the Chargers take on another NFC South in the Buccaneers, who beat the same Panthers team 31-17. Justin Herbert will be starting his second NFL game against a Tampa defense that is surprisingly stingy, and should cause plenty of headaches for the rookie.
Complicating this game is the injury status of Chris Godwin, who will miss this game with a hamstring injury. I’ll still roll with a tough Tampa defense to fluster Herbert enough, and trust that Tom Brady can still put up enough points to cover the spread here as a favorite.
The Picks: Bucs -7 / Over 43
Baltimore Ravens (-13) at Washington Football Team, O/U 45.5
The WFT was in position to get the cover against the Browns in Week 3 until they choked late in typical Washington fashion. Now they will get a pissed off Ravens team who will be looking to get rid of the bad taste in their mouths after losing to the Chiefs in Week 3.
The 13-point spread has stayed very consistent throughout the week. With Chase Young doubtful for the WFT in this game, and Dwayne Haskins not exactly inspiring much confidence with his play to start the season, I’ll take the Ravens to bounce back against a Washington team that may actually be as bad as people expected before the season started.
The Picks: Ravens -13 / Over 45.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) at Tennessee Titans, O/U 47
It’s hard to bet on a game that may not even happen. Who knows which players are going to be out due to Covid-19 as well? 2020, man.
Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers, O/U 51.5
This spread makes *no sense* to me. Yes, the Cardinals lost to Detroit last week, in a game that saw Kyler Murray throw three interceptions against a bad Lions secondary. But...really? Only favored by 3.5 points against a Panthers team still without Christian McCaffrey?
If homefield advantage meant much in 2020, this would give me pause, as this spread feels like a trap. The Panthers are allowing opposing offenses to convert on 56.8% of third downs, which is second-worst in the league. As long as the Cardinals can hold onto the ball, they should roll.
The Picks: Cardinals -3.5 / Under 51.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3), O/U 49.5
So, what exactly has Cincinnati done to deserve being three-point favorites against a Jaguars team that has looked more competitive than many expected them to be heading into 2020? Gardner Minshew vs. Joe Burrow is a sneaky good young quarterback matchup, and could lead to some points being put up, although Jacksonville could struggle against the Bengals’ sixth-ranked pass defense.
I’ll take the Jaguars getting three points against a Bengals team that could only muster a tie against an awful Eagles team in Week 3.
Get this number while you can before DJ Chark is declared in for this game for the Jaguars.
The Picks: Jaguars +3 / Under 49.5
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins, O/U 53
Is it possible the Seahawks are still being undervalued? Nothing about the Miami defense indicates this could be the team to slow down Russell Wilson at all. On the other hand, the Seattle defense is dealing with injuries, and looks ripe to be picked on by Ryan Fitzpatrick too. This could be another high-scoring game involving the Seahawks again, but this Dolphins team is worse than the Cowboys, who Seattle beat by a touchdown at home.
The Picks: Seahawks -6.5 / Over 53
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (-13), O/U 48
The Giants had a big opportunity in front of them against the 49ers last week, at home, and decided to sleepwalk through that game instead, falling to a severely depleted Niners team by a score of 36-9.
Now, they get to face a Rams team that will be playing angry after losing a close game to Buffalo on the road last week. The Giants have scored 38 points total in the first three games, and should struggle to score against a talented Rams defense. Daniel Jones is going to have nightmares of Aaron Donald after this one.
The Picks: Rams -13 / Under 48
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders, O/U 52.5
Josh Allen is proving the haters wrong more and more each week. The Bills look legit, after beating the Rams 35-32 at home in Week 3, while the Raiders will be shorthanded as they look to rebound from a road loss to the Patriots.
With Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards out for this one, the Raiders will be lacking at the skill positions against a tough Bills defense. While traveling cross country could lead to a sluggish start for the Bills on the road, take an improved Josh Allen against a Raiders team that doesn’t look *quite* ready to compete with the big boys just yet.
The Picks: Bills -3 / Under 52.5
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-7), O/U 53
The Patriots looked good in their Week 3 victory against Las Vegas, but now go on the road to take on a Chiefs team that looks damn close to unstoppable on offense. The New England secondary will struggle to contain the speed of the Kansas City offense, and while Cam Newton proved in Seattle that this offense can have success while playing from behind, this is too tough a task for New England this early in the season.
Kansas City has scored 42, 40, 31, and 23 points in its last four games against the Patriots.
The Picks: Chiefs -7 / Under 53
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-7), O/U 45
It’s just simply not right that this game is on Sunday Night Football this week. Can we please flex this out? Please?
The Eagles are awful, as we mentioned previously, and the 49ers just beat up another NFC East team in the Giants. Kyle Shanahan has shown that his offense can put up points no matter who is playing quarterback, and Nick Mullens looks capable of running the show until Jimmy Garoppolo returns.
To make matters worse for the Eagles, Dallas Goedert is out now after fracturing his left ankle, giving Carson Wentz one less weapon to rely on. This will likely be an ugly game for Philadelphia, who desperately needs Wentz to pull out of whatever slump he is in right now.
The Picks: Niners -7 / Over 45
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-7.5), O/U 56.5
Overs have been the trend to start this season, and we’re going back to the well once again with this one, even though Vegas is setting the bar HIGH at 56.5. Atlanta’s defense is abysmal and should be shredded with ease by Aaron Rodgers, who is playing at an MVP-caliber level again in 2020.
If Julio Jones is healthy enough to play for Atlanta in this game, I do like the Falcons to be able to keep this game somewhat close with an elite passing attack of their own. I’ll wait to bet this game until word comes down on Jones’ status, but if this spread sticks at 7.5 points, I will look long and hard at the Falcons as 7.5-point underdogs if they can get Julio Jones back. In high scoring games, as this one should be, a 7.5-point spread is a lot.
The Picks: Falcons +7.5 / Over 56.5
Week 4 Pick Six Bets
- Browns/Cowboys Under 56
- Falcons/Packers Over 56.5
- Cardinals -3.5
- Seahawks/Dolphins Over 53
- Bills -3
- Colts/Bears Over 43