It was a wildly successful Week 5, going 6-0 on our Pick Six best bets, and 18-8 overall, bringing our overall record to 84-65-3 on the year. As the NFL continues to try and tip-toe around the coronavirus threat that appears to be stalking its teams, it’s important to keep up-to-date on all the roster shuffling that is going on around the league as teams try their damnedest to prevent an outbreak.
Week 6 features a few fun games, including Browns-Steelers, Packers-Bucs, and Chiefs-Bills. Here’s what we are eyeing this week.
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-10), O/U 45
The Patriots will get back Cam Newton and Stephon Gilmore this week from the COVID list, while the Broncos will be without starting running back Melvin Gordon, and possibly Noah Fant, who is listed as questionable.
New England has hardly been at its facilities in the last two weeks, and that layoff could affect them here. But with Denver shorthanded, and the Patriots getting two of their top players back, I’ll ride with the home favorites.
The Picks: Patriots -10 / Under 45
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3), O/U 52.5
Ryan Tannehill has legitimately become a very good quarterback, and with Derrick Henry at running back, the Titans can attack you however they want. Houston covered against Jacksonville last week, but it was a close game until midway through the fourth quarter.
Tennessee also will get back Adam Humphries this week, and should be able to have success against a Houston defense that is giving up 28 points per game.
The Picks: Titans -3 / Under 52.5
Washington Football Team at New York Giants (-2.5), O/U 42.5
Not exactly a game that fans will be desperate to watch this week. After suffering an injury in his season debut last week, Kyle Allen will start for the Washington Football Team against a Giants defense that has shown flashes, but has struggled to find consistency this season.
The WFT defensive line should cause issues for Daniel Jones in this one, and it wouldn’t be surprised to see Danny Fumbles cough up another one this week.
The Picks: WFT +2.5 / Over 42.5
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-4), O/U 54.5
If you want to believe that the Falcons may get a bump this week playing for a new interim head coach, now that Dan Quinn has finally been let go, go ahead. But Atlanta is awful, and the Vikings suddenly look like they have figured things out.
Even with Dalvin Cook out, the Vikings offense likely will not miss a beat with Alexander Mattison stepping in for Cook. This could be a blowout win for Minnesota.
The Picks: Vikings -4 / Under 54.5
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (-1.5), O/U 45
The Panthers, who came into this year with very low expectations, are surging all of a sudden, having won three in a row, all without Christian McCaffrey. I’ll bet that this is the week they regress back to the mean, against a Bears defense that should muddy the water for Teddy Bridgewater and the Carolina offense.
The Picks: Bears +1.5 / Over 45
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 54.5
Detroit’s passing attack should be able to pick on a poor Jaguars defense. After a hot start to the season, Jacksonville looks to be the team that many expected this season. Matt Patricia really needs to win this game if he wants to keep his job much longer.
The Picks: Lions -3.5 / Under 54.5
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3), O/U 51
One of the best matchups of Week 6, featuring two AFC North division rivals, both with strong offenses. Pittsburgh covered last week against Philadelphia, but it was tighter game than expected, as the Eagles looked sure to cover until Chase Claypool scored his fourth touchdown late in the game.
Both teams are pretty evenly matched. Pittsburgh should have the run defense to limit the Browns’ rushing attack, which should make Cleveland rely more on Baker Mayfield to bring them a W. Whether he can do that is the question, but the Browns have won four straight, and should be able to keep this close on the road. Wyatt Teller being out for Cleveland on their offensive line will be a huge blow though, and one I doubt they overcome.
The Picks: Steelers -3 / Over 51
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-8), O/U 46.5
Joe Burrow had a rough go of it last week against the Baltimore Ravens’ defense, and it won’t get any easier against a Colts defense that is among the best in the league. Darius Leonard’s status in this game bears watching, after the Colts let up 32 points to Cleveland last week with Leonard on the sideline.
I don’t trust Philip Rivers, and I think highly of Joe Burrow. Give me the young upstart Bengals.
The Picks: Bengals +8 / Under 46.5
Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles, O/U 47.5
Baltimore clobbered the Bengals by a score of 27-3 last week, and now will face a Philadelphia team that may be getting some help on offense, with wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson listed as questionable.
Baltimore has the secondary to stop the Eagles’ passing attack however, with cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters. 7.5 points is a lot for a road favorite, but I’ll fade the Eagles here.
The Picks: Ravens -7.5 / Under 47
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-9.5), O/U 47
Joe Flacco still at quarterback? Adam Gase STILL (?!) the head coach? Dolphins all the way.
The Picks: Dolphins -8 / Under 47
Green Bay Packers (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, O/U 55
The best matchup of Week 6, featuring Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers. Bucs are coming off a disappointing loss to Chicago, and will be motivated to get back on track at home against a Packers team that has shown last year’s NFC Championship appearance was no fluke.
The Bucs defense suffered a major loss last week with defensive tackle Vita Vea suffering a season-ending broken ankle, which should allow Green Bay to get its run game going, and keep the Tampa defense guessing. Aaron Rodgers is playing at an MVP level, while Tom Brady is still finding his way in Tampa. Let’s hope he gets the downs correctly this week.
The Picks: Packers -1 / Over 54.5
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers, O/U 51.5
The 49ers tend to play the Rams in close games, but after getting clobbered by Miami this week, that appears to be a tall task this week. The Rams are clicking on offense, and will be able to take advantage of a shorthanded San Francisco defense.
The Picks: Rams -3.5 / Under 51.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Buffalo Bills, O/U 57.5
The Bills were upset by the Titans on Monday, and won’t get any breaks this week when they play host to the defending Super Bowl champions.
The Chiefs, however, have issues of their own, especially on offense. Luckily they welcome in new signing Le’Veon Bell, and can feast on a poor Buffalo run D.
Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes should get back on track on offense, and the question is if the Bills can do the same with their offense. Getting John Brown back will be key against a surprisingly good Kansas City secondary. This should be a close game, and while I think the Chiefs win, I think four points is too many.
The Picks: Bills +5.5 / Under 57.5
Arizona Cardinals (-2) at Dallas Cowboys, O/U 55
The Andy Dalton era begins in Dallas, as the Cowboys welcome in the Cardinals, who are coming off a big win against the lowly Jets last week.
Arizona has been inconsistent this year, and it’s hard to tell what team you are going to get from week to week.
Dalton, meanwhile, will take over an offense that has more weapons than he has ever played with before. He should be able to spread the ball around and keep the Dallas offense clicking in Dak Prescott’s absence, but I think the media is overrating just how well Dalton can do in this offense. I think the Cardinals romp here.
The Picks: Cardinals -2 / Over 55
Pick Six Best Bets
Chiefs/Bills Under 57.5