It was a subpar Week 6 overall, going 13-15 overall, but we made money where it mattered most, with our best bets, finishing with a 5-1 record on our Pick Six picks, giving us a 25-11 record on best bets, winning at a clip of nearly 70%.
Week 7 is headlined by the Pittsburgh Steelers traveling to take on the Tennessee Titans in a battle of unbeaten teams. Elsewhere, we have some fun divisional battles, as well as what could potentially be a high-scoring game between Tampa Bay and Las Vegas. Let’s take a look at the board for this week.
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Houston Texans, O/U 57
The Packers suffered a letdown on the road last week, getting rocked by Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Aaron Rodgers will be extra motivated to get his team back on track against a bad Texans team.
Aaron Jones could be out for this game with a calf injury, as he is questionable. But the Packers still have Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon in their backfield, and should have no trouble moving the ball against a porous Houston defense. We know the Packers will put up points in this game, the question is if Houston can answer back.
The Picks: Packers -3.5 / Over 57
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team (-1), O/U 46
At the beginning of the season, this game would have likely had the Cowboys as favorites by a touchdown or more. But now Dallas finds itself without its starting quarterback, and has its players beginning to complain about head coach Mike McCarthy and his schemes.
But it’s not like you can expect the Washington Football Team to get the win against this weak Cowboys team. Because of Dallas’ struggles, and WFT’s general ineptitude, this is a tough game to handicap. With Tyron Smith and Zack Martin out for Dallas on their O-line, the Washington D-line should be able to make for a long day for Andy Dalton. But the Cowboys were -10 lookahead favorites against WFT before the season started, and Washington has the 30th-ranked offensive DVOA. I will take the more talented team in a bounceback spot.
The Picks: Cowboys +1 / Under 46
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (-2), O/U 55
Dan Quinn as a favorite again, and I really am not sure why the Falcons deserve to be favored here. Are we really putting that much stock in one win against a middling Minnesota Vikings team? I don’t buy it. The Lions are going to pick on the worst passing defense in the NFL all day on Sunday.
The Picks: Lions +2 / Over 55
Buffalo Bills (-10) at New York Jets, O/U 45
This game started out at a 13.5- to 14-point spread, but dropped significantly with news of the injuries that Buffalo is dealing with, as the team could be without its top 3 corners, including Tre’Davious White, and will also be without wide receiver John Brown and linebacker Matt Milano.
The smart play is to take the Jets. Sam Darnold is likely playing in this game after missing the last two games with a shoulder injury, and the Jets will also have Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims back, which should help them pick on a subpar Buffalo defense that will be shorthanded in the secondary, to compound its issues in stopping the run as well.
But I just cannot bring myself to trust Adam Gase to cover ANY game. I just can’t do it. I’m staying away from this one.
Update: Tre White and Matt Milano are active. I am flipping this pick to Bills -10, but still don’t feel great about it.
The Picks: Bills -10 / Under 45
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7.5), O/U 51
The Panthers took a step back in Week 6, losing 23-16 to the Chicago Bears. This week, the Panthers offense will get to face a New Orleans defense that has not lived up to expectations so far this season, which should help Teddy Bridgewater and his teammates get back on track on that side of the ball.
The Panthers should be able to keep up with the Saints, who will be missing both Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders on offense. As long as this spread stays a touchdown or more, I will go with Carolina.
The Picks: Panthers +7.5 / Under 51
Cleveland Browns (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals, O/U 50.5
A rematch of Thursday Night Football from a few weeks ago, when the Bengals got the backdoor cover. The Browns are more desperate now, having been smacked around by the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.
Odell Beckham Jr. is starting to throw hissy fits again, Baker Mayfield is still bad, and Nick Chubb is still out for Cleveland. The Bengals will be without Joe Mixon in this game, but with AJ Green showing signs of waking up, they could keep this game close again this week.
I think that the Browns will be extra motivated to win this game, so I will go with the more desperate team.
The Picks: Browns -3 / Over 50.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (-1.5), O/U 50.5
The battle of the unbeatens. Tennessee has looked strong on offense, and can attack teams in several ways, with Derrick Henry being his usual beast self, and Ryan Tannehill establishing himself as a top-tier quarterback in the NFL.
But the Steelers have the defense that can stop this Titans attack, especially on the ground, and the Titans will also be without starting left tackle Taylor Lewan, which is a massive loss.
On the flip side, I don’t think Tennessee can stop the Steelers offense in the same way.
The Picks: Steelers +1.5 / Over 50.5
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals, O/U 56
Arizona beat up on Dallas on Monday night, but will struggle to generate as many turnovers out of Seattle as they did from Andy Dalton and the Cowboys offense.
If I had to pick a side on the spread, I would take Arizona at more than a field goal. The angle I am looking at here is the under in the game. Divisional games tend to be more low-scoring, and Arizona’s last six games have gone under, while Seattle is 9-2 for the under in its last 11 games as a road favorite.
This certainly could be a shootout, but I think Arizona’s defense is underrated, and between Patrick Peterson and Byron Murphy, can slow down the Seattle downfield passing attack enough to keep this below 56.
The Picks: Cardinals +3.5 / Under 56
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at Denver Broncos, O/U 46
This spread is too big for a divisional game. The Chiefs tend to struggle to get up for these kinds of games, and I think the Broncos can keep this to around a touchdown.
The Picks: Broncos +9.5 / Over 46
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5), O/U 49
The Jaguars are keeping on a steady decline this season, but I think is the week they start to pick themselves back up off the floor. While Justin Herbert has looked great for LA so far, I don’t believe the Chargers are more than a touchdown better than the Jaguars, and I think this could be one of the more fun games this weekend between two young quarterbacks who aren’t afraid to sling it.
The Picks: Jaguars +7.5 / Over 49
San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (-1.5), O/U 43.5
This will be a fascinating matchup from an X’s-and-O’s standpoint, to see how Bill Belichick tries to slow down Kyle Shanahan’s creative genius on offense.
Ultimately, I will go with the Patriots as small home favorites, because of what the Dolphins and Brian Flores did to make life miserable for Jimmy Garoppolo a couple of weeks ago. Expect the same game plan from Belichick on Sunday, and expect a bounceback effort from the Patriots offense, now that they’ve had the chance to get back on the practice field this week.
The Picks: Patriots -1.5 / Under 43.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders, O/U 51
Note: This game was flexed out of Sunday Night Football because of positive tests on Las Vegas that could impact the game further depending on what happens between now and game time.
BUT...if this game does go on, here are my thoughts:
Tampa Bay had an impressive win against a previously undefeated Green Bay team, and their defense looks to have the makings of a top-five unit in the league. With the Raiders entire offensive line missing the week while being placed on the Reserve/Covid-19 list after offensive tackle Trent Brown tested positive, I don’t think that bodes well for the Raiders offense against a fierce Tampa D. I think the Bucs win this one handily, if the game is played.
The Picks: Buccaneers -3 / Over 51
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-6), O/U 45
The 5-1 Bears still aren’t getting much respect, despite limiting a good Carolina offense last week. I believe Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack will make Jared Goff’s day pretty tough on Sunday, and I struggle to see how the Rams offense will be able to have more success this week against a Bears defense that is better than the 49ers defense that held it to just 16 points last week.
The Picks: Bears +6 / Under 45
Pick Six Best Bets
Bills/Jets Under 45
Dallas/WFT Under 46