Our profitable season at Pats Pulpit HQ continued in earnest, as we went 16-11-1 overall in Week 10, and 5-1 on best bets. For the season, we are now 40-20 on best bets, hitting on two-thirds of our picks, and making some serious coin. Overall, we are 144-115-5 (54.5%). We’ll look to keep that same success going this week in Week 11.
New England Patriots (-2) at Houston Texans, O/U 48.5
Call me biased, but the Patriots are not losing this game. They need to win every game possible to have a shot at the playoffs, and I cannot see a let-up happening against the freaking Houston Texans.
The Picks: Patriots -2 / Under 48.5
Detroit Lions (-2) at Carolina Panthers, O/U 45.5
With Teddy Bridgewater likely out this week for the Panthers, this will be a tough matchup for the Panthers if Matt Stafford plays for the Lions. I won’t bet this game until I know if Stafford is in, but if he is, I like the Lions to put up points against Carolina, and for the Panthers offense to struggle with PJ Walker at QB.
The Picks: Lions -2 / Over 45.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (-3), O/U 47.5
I wish I didn’t want to bet on the Browns this week, after Nick Chubb absolutely screwed over me and everyone else who had a Browns ticket last week when he ran out of bounds at the one-yard line. But the Eagles just lost to the Giants and despite getting some players back finally, still seem to be pretty bad. I’ll take Cleveland and the under on what should be another gross day from a weather perspective, with 15-20 MPH winds in the forecast.
The Picks: Browns -3.5 / Under 47.5
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4), O/U 52
The Falcons, who are winners of three out of their last four games, will get to play a Saints team that is reportedly going to start Taysom Hill at quarterback with Drew Brees out. How you bet this game comes down to your feelings on Taysom Hill as a starting quarterback, and Jameis Winston, to a lesser extent.
The Picks: Falcons +4 / Under 52
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team (-1.5), O/U 47
It’s the battle of #1 vs. #2...2020 draft picks, that is. Joe Burrow vs. Chase Young headlines what isn’t a very exciting game otherwise. The Football Team lost a winnable game to Detroit last week, and will take on a Bengals team that will be without Joe Mixon again, and possibly Tee Higgins, who has had an illness this week.
Cincinnati has played a tougher schedule so far this season, and has the better quarterback here. I’ll take the road dog Bengals against a bad WFT team.
The Picks: Bengals +1.5 / Over 47
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 46
The Steelers continue their cake walk of a schedule by once again being a double-digit favorites against a bad opponent, this time the Jacksonville Jaguars. However, is it possible the Jaguars aren’t getting enough credit here, with how rookie backup Jake Luton has looked the last couple weeks?
After nearly beating Green Bay last week, and having a talented rookie running back in James Robinson, the Jaguars may be in an undervalued spot here. I’ll take the points here as long as I can get above the key number of 10, especially with this being a look-ahead spot for Pittsburgh, with an AFC North showdown looming next week against the Ravens.
The Picks: Jaguars +10.5 / Over 46
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Denver Broncos, O/U 45
Don’t overthink this one. Miami’s defense is legit, and may be facing a Denver offense without Drew Lock this week, not that that is much of a loss. But Brett Rypien isn’t gonna go crazy either, if he plays. The Tua Train keeps on rolling.
The Picks: Dolphins -3.5 / Under 45
New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5), O/U 46
Anthony Lynn as a double-digit favorite is a tempting angle to fade. I want to take New York here, but I think Los Angeles will be hungry in a get-right spot after dropping three straight games, and Justin Herbert will be ready to pick on a subpar New York secondary.
The Picks: Chargers -9.5 / Under 46
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5), O/U 51
One of the more entertaining games this weekend, where the Colts defense will get a chance to show it is for real against one of the top offenses in the NFL this season. Indy has yet to face a QB like Aaron Rodgers this season, so they have their work cut out for them, especially with Allen Lazard returning this week for Green Bay.
The Picks: Packers +2.5 / Over 51
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-7), O/U 48.5
Andy Dalton is set to return for the Cowboys this week, which isn’t necessarily an upgrade. Minnesota should be able to score easily against a bad Cowboys defense, and it’s hard to see Dallas being able to keep up on the other end.
The Picks: Vikings -7 / Under 48.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-8) at Las Vegas Raiders, O/U 57
This matchup is going to be spicy this week after the Raiders took a victory lap in their team buses after they beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium earlier this season, something Andy Reid alluded to in his press conference this week with the media. The Raiders also had almost their entire starting defense out this week due to COVID protocols, and will be behind the eight-ball already heading into a matchup against a motivated and ticked-off Chiefs team. I think Kansas City will look to run up the score this week against the Raiders.
The Picks: Chiefs -8 / Under 57
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4), O/U 48
This spread seems off to me. The Rams defense is an elite unit, and Aaron Donald should make Tom Brady’s night very difficult against an interior O-Line for Tampa Bay that has had issues and been rotating at the center position. I think this will be a great game, and anything more than a field goal difference is too much.
The Picks: Rams +4 / Under 48
And finally, for completeness’ sake, our take on Thursday Night’s game:
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-3), O/U 57
Arizona won Round 1 earlier this season in a close game, and I expect another close game here, as Seattle loves to make games as nerve-wracking as possible, and Arizona has been playing close games lately too, especially last season. I think the home favorites will get revenge here, and Arizona’s good luck will run out.
The Picks: Seattle -3 / Under 57
Pick Six Best Bets
Chiefs/Raiders Under 57
Lions/Panthers Over 45.5
Falcons/Saints Under 52