Another 4-2 week on best bets in Week 13 has us cooking at a rate of 59.7 percent for the season, and with only a few weeks left in the regular season, let’s quickly get into this week’s picks.
Tennessee Titans (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 52.5
The Jags are still in a tight race in the AFC South, and can’t afford to look past a bad Jaguars team. It’s going to be 72 degrees with no wind on Sunday, which I think helps the over.
When it comes to the spread, I want to take Tennessee here, because I think this game has blowout potential, but the Jaguars have been a sneaky-good team against the spread. I’ll stay away from betting a side here.
The Picks: Titans -7 / Over 52.5
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals, O/U 43
I don’t think either defense is going to be able to stop the opponent’s offense. I think 43 is too low of a total here, and do see value on taking the over. In terms of the spread, this is just going to be a gross game, so I would avoid. Ultimately, I would take the team with the better quarterback and superior weapons, which is Dallas.
The Picks: Cowboys -3 / Over 43
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at New York Giants, O/U 47
The Cardinals are on the outside looking in for the playoffs right now, while the Giants need this game to keep pace with the WFT in the NFC (L)East. I think New York has the defense to limit Arizona, and with Daniel Jones back, the G-Men should get a nice little shot in the arm, especially with this game at home for them.
The Picks: Giants +2.5 / Under 47
Houston Texans (-1.5) at Chicago Bears, O/U 45.5
Two underwhelming teams who are both coming off a loss, I like the Texans here. They have the best player on the field for either team, in Deshaun Watson. The Bears have also allowed a 68 percent completion rate in the last three games, and is giving up 12.3 yards per completion since Week 11. I think Watson will eat in this game, and I also think the over cashes pretty easily.
The Picks: Houston -1.5 / Over 45.5
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (-3.5), O/U 44.5
Both teams are 4-8 and don’t have much to play for this late in the season. The Panthers have also been trying to contain a COVID outbreak in their facilities, and had to shut down their practice facility on Monday and Tuesday of this week. D.J. Moore looks to still be out for this game, as he hasn’t been activated from the COVID/reserve list yet, which may hinder the Carolina passing attack, against a Denver secondary that will be without top cornerback A.J. Bouye.
Nothing about this game makes me want to bet it.
The Picks: Broncos +3.5 / Under 44.5
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7), O/U 52.5
Coming off a bye, Tom Brady and the Bucs get to face a Vikings team that needed overtime to beat a 1-10 Jaguars team last week. While I don’t love the spread here, I do see the Bucs racking up points early on, and the Vikings tacking some late points on as they try to play catch-up in the second half, so I like the over the most here.
The Picks: Vikings +7 / Over 52.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Miami Dolphins, O/U 50.5
We’ll get a good sense of just how good Miami really is when they welcome in the defending Super Bowl champs this week. Kansas City is 0-4 ATS in its last four games, and now will take on a stingy Miami defense that has helped the Dolphins go 7-1 ATS and SU in their last 8 games.
I wouldn’t bet either side, because of the Chiefs’ explosive potential on offense, and the fact that I’m not sure yet if Miami is ready to handle this good of a team just yet.
I do love the under here. Miami has the defense to limit KC, and the Dolphins are 5-2 to the under in their seven games. Brian Flores is going to try and slow this game down too to keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands, which should also help the under.
The Picks: Chiefs -7 / Under 50.5
Green Bay Packers (-8) at Detroit Lions, O/U 54.5
I smell blowout potential here. Detroit will be without Jeff Okudah and Desmond Trufant both, and Aaron Rodgers should be able to absolutely shred the Detroit defense, which stinks even when it has all its players.
The Picks: Packers -8, Under 54.5
Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders, O/U 52
The Raiders are in a late-season free fall, and I don’t see that stopping this week against the Colts, especially if Josh Jacobs is out again this weekend. The Colts have the running game to pick on a Raiders defense that has let up 439 yards rushing in the last three games, and the Raiders will also likely be missing Damon Arnette and Johnathan Abram, two key players in the secondary.
The Picks: Colts -3 / Over 52
New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5), O/U 48
I feel gross doing this, but if you’re going to give me more than two touchdowns against a Seattle team that loves to play close games, I think I have to take the Jets here. *gags*
The Picks: Jets +14.5 / Under 48
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Chargers (PK), O/U 49
The Falcons originally opened as road favorites in this game, which was perplexing, and then Julio Jones was declared out for this game. The Chargers have the 27th-ranked scoring defense and will be facing a Falcons offense that is averaging 27 points per game in its last seven games.
I love the over here, and like the Chargers to bounce back in a close game, after being embarrassed by New England the week before.
The Picks: Chargers PK / Over 49
New Orleans Saints (-8) at Philadelphia Eagles, O/U 42.5
Jalen Hurts will face a tough challenge in his first NFL start, against a very good Saints defense. Regardless of who is at quarterback, the Eagles are not a very good team, and I don’t think Hurts is going to have enough support on offense to help keep this close.
The Picks: Saints -8 / Under 42.5
Washington Football Team at San Francisco 49ers (-3), O/U 44
No Antonio Gibson for a full game is really going to hinder the WFT offense, but the 49ers will be facing a WFT defensive unit on the other wide that allows the eighth-fewest points per game in the league.
WFT is a decent team, and they are very much in the playoff hunt still in their division. I expect this to be a close, defensive battle.
The Picks: WFT +3 / Under 44
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-2.5), O/U 49
I don’t see how Buffalo doesn’t shred the Pittsburgh defense in this one. The Steelers are an overrated team, while Buffalo and Josh Allen are in a groove right now.
The Picks: Bills -2.5 / Over 49
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Cleveland Browns, O/U 46.5
Are...are the Browns actually a better team than the Ravens this year? I think yes.
The Picks: Browns +3 / Under 46.5
Pick Six Best Bets
Texans/Bears Over 45.5
Cowboys/Bengals Over 43
Chiefs/Dolphins Under 50.5
WFT/Niners Under 44