It was a painful Week 14 over here, finishing 11-19 overall, but minimizing the damage with our best bets, finishing even at 3-3, bringing us to 46-32 overall this season on best bets. Let’s get back on track this week!
Buffalo Bills (-6) at Denver Broncos, O/U 49
This is a letdown spot for Buffalo coming off of two great wins, and on a short week, and the Broncos are coming off of a high-scoring win against Carolina, 32-27. The Bills and Josh Allen should be able to shred a Denver secondary that will be missing both AJ Buoye and Duke Dawson this weekend, even with John Brown out again.
The Picks: Bills -6 / Under 49
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-8), O/U 51.5
The Panthers are 6-3 as underdogs this season, and get back D.J. Moore off the Covid-19 list as well, against a Packers team that has struggled to close out opponents late. The Packers are also 20th in the NFL in defensive DVOA, so I love the over here in this game.
While I expect Green Bay to win, I think Carolina can backdoor this, at least.
The Picks: Panthers +8 / Over 51.5
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5), O/U 51
The Texans failed to cover against the Colts in their first matchup this season, but had a chance late to win the game outright. I think more than a touchdown is too large in a divisional game, especially for this being the second game of the season between the two teams.
The Picks: Texans +7.5 / Over 51
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Washington Football Team, O/U 43.5
This is a tough game to handicap because Dwayne Haskins will be starting for the Washington Football Team. I would ask first, however, is Vegas really that impressed with their blowout win against the Jets last week? Or do they just not think anything of Haskins? Tough to say.
I don’t think the Seahawks are worth laying the 6.5 points here, because WFT has a superior defensive line, and a solid pass defense too. Haskins may not be a good quarterback, but he should help move the ball downfield more than Alex Smith can, and I think he could find some success against a below average Seattle pass defense.
The Picks: WFT +6.5 / Over 43.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) at Atlanta Falcons, O/U 48.5
The Buccaneers will be without Ronald Jones in this one, while the Falcons don’t know yet if Julio Jones will give it a go this weekend. The Buccaneers are coming off of a bye, and need every win they can get right now. I’m not sure I feel comfortable taking Tampa by almost a touchdown, but I’m definitely not betting Atlanta here.
The Picks: Buccaneers -6.5 / Under 48.5
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-1.5), O/U 41.5
The Patriots are virtually out of the playoff picture at this point, and will take on a talented Miami defense on the road, in New England’s house of horrors, Hard Rock Stadium. This has the makings of a grind-it-out game between two teams that know each other very well, and the Dolphins could be without Devante Parker, Mike Gesicki, and Jakeem Grant, which would hamper their offense.
The Picks: Patriots +1.5 / Under 41.5
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5), O/U 46.5
Both teams have been up-and-down this season. The Bears are averaging 30 points per game since Mitch Trubisky reclaimed his starting job, and should be able to score against the Vikings, who should be able to return the favor when they are on offense.
I think this will be a tight game with two bad defenses, and like the over the most here, as well as the road dogs.
The Picks: Bears +3.5 / Over 46.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-12.5), O/U 48
If this game were to get to two touchdowns I would consider taking Jacksonville, who is starting Gardner Minshew this week, but until that happens, I have to take the Ravens.
The Picks: Ravens -12.5 / Over 48
San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Dallas Cowboys, O/U 45
The 49ers are going to run. all. over. this porous Cowboys run defense. I will comfortably take the Niners as road favorites.
The Picks: Niners -3 / Under 45
New York Jets at Los Angeles Rams (-17), O/U 43.5
A 40-3 loss to Seattle would seem to indicate the Jets are already looking forward to the offseason, one in which they are praying lands them Trevor Lawrence. The Rams are still fighting for playoff positioning with their NFC West counterparts, and could use a comfortable win.
I don’t see how the Jets score against the vaunted Rams defense, and I think this is another blowout.
The Picks: Rams -17 / Under 43.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (-6), O/U 49.5
Did you know that road underdogs are 4-1 ATS against Kliff Kingsbury and the Cardinals? Additionally, Doug Pederson is 10-4 ATS when without Carson Wentz as his starter.
I don’t think the Cardinals have done enough to be 6-point favorites here, and I think the Eagles, who are better without Carson Wentz, could win this game outright.
The Picks: Eagles +6 / Under 49.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at New Orleans Saints, O/U 52.5
Drew Brees returns for this game, but Michael Thomas exits, as he has been declared out for this game. The Saints defense could keep this interesting, but Brees cannot keep pace with Mahomes and the Chiefs offense for a whole game.
The Picks: Chiefs -3 / Under 52.5
Cleveland Browns (-6.5) at New York Giants, O/U 44
I really can’t believe the NFL decided to flex this game INTO the Sunday Night Football slot. What a world.
Anyways, if Daniel Jones starts this game, I take the Browns, because Jones is not healthy enough to give this team much. If Colt McCoy starts... I consider taking the Giants, especially if this line moves to a touchdown or more.
The Picks: Browns -6.5 / Over 44
Pittsburgh Steelers (-13) at Cincinnati Bengals, O/U 40
I don’t think this will be particularly close. Steelers in a blowout.
The Picks: Steelers -13 / Over 40
Pick Six Best Bets
Panthers/Packers Over 51.5
Bears/Vikings Over 46.5
49ers/Cowboys Under 45