After taking a holiday break last week, we are back and better than ever for Week 13 of the NFL season.
(Side note: How is it ALREADY Week 13? Crap.)
For posterity’s sake, I did make sure to document my picks last week over on my Twitter account (@AidanCurran_, give it a follow!):
Turns out, it was a really good week, going 20-10 overall, and 4-2 on best bets. Let’s hope we have the same good fortune this week!
Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings (-10), O/U 51
Surprisingly enough, the Jaguars have covered three of their last four games, and almost beat the Cleveland Browns last week, with Mike Glennon at quarterback. The Vikings should be able to pick on a weak Jaguars defense with Adam Thielen back at wide receiver, but the Jaguars also should be able to find some success against a Vikings defense that isn’t exactly the most stout in the NFL.
The Picks: Jaguars +10 / Over 51
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-4.5), O/U 53.5
The Browns struggled to put away the Jaguars last week, escaping with a 27-25 win on the road. Meanwhile, the Titans had an impressive 45-26 win over their division rivals in Indianapolis, and seem to be trending in an upward direction at the right time. The total of 53.5 is the highest on the board this week, which is interesting considering both teams have strong running games. If one team gets up in this game, you would think they would focus on running the ball to chew up clock.
While Myles Garrett is expected back for this game, the Browns will be without their top defenders in coverage, Denzel Ward and Ronnie Harrison, which won’t help against the dangerous wideout duo of A.J. Brown and Corey Davis. And with the over being 17-3-1 in 21 starts for Ryan Tannehill, I’ll take the over as well.
The Picks: Titans -4.5 / Over 53.5
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3), O/U 44.5
Darrell Bevell takes over as head coach this week in Detroit but will have an offense that is once again missing some of its best players, with Kenny Golladay out again, and D’Andre Swift also being declared out due to illness.
I initially loved the over here, but it’s tough to feel as good about it now with Golladay and Swift out. This could be an ugly game, and I’ll take the home team now as a result.
The Picks: Bears (-3) / Over 44.5
Las Vegas Raiders (-7.5) at New York Jets, O/U 47
This is a big-time bounceback spot for the Raiders and their playoff hopes after getting annihilated by the Atlanta Falcons last week on the road. Luckily for them, they get to bounce back against the winless New York Jets.
The Raiders will be without starting running back Josh Jacobs this week, but should be able to get back on track against a Jets team that managed to score only three points last weekend against the Dolphins.
Recency bias is a hell of a drug. Last week’s effort against Atlanta was a bad look for Las Vegas, but they should bounce back here.
The Picks: Raiders -7.5 / Under 47
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Atlanta Falcons, O/U 45.5
The Saints already beat the Falcons with Taysom Hill starting at quarterback two weeks ago, as 3.5-point favorites, and now will look to do the same thing on the road in the ATL this week.
I like the under the most here. Atlanta’s defense has improved in the last few weeks, and New Orleans struggled last week against a good Denver defense. Meanwhile, the Saints defense has allowed just one touchdown in the last 16 quarters. I think this will be a closer game, especially if Julio Jones returns.
The Picks: Falcons +3 / Under 45.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (-10.5), O/U 43
Although Cincinnati covered against the Giants last week, I have faith that a little sprinkle of FitzMagic will help the Dolphins win in convincing fashion this weekend, with the help of a strong defense that shut down another bad team, the Jets, last week.
The Picks: Miami -10.5 / Under 43
Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Houston Texans, O/U 50.5
The Colts suffered a big setback last week to the Titans, and will look to take out their frustrations on the Texans this week, who lost Will Fuller to PED suspension this week, for the rest of the season.
While the Indy defense doesn’t appear to be as good as advertised, after giving up 42 points to the Titans, the Colts are good enough to beat a team that is now missing its top wide receiver, in addition to the issues it already has running the ball.
The Picks: Colts -3 / Under 50.5
Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Arizona Cardinals, O/U 48
Both teams were victims of upset losses last week, and it’s hard to know if either team is a legit contender in the NFC. This should be another close NFC West battle, and I will go with the Cardinals to cover here.
The Picks: Cardinals +3 / Under 48
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-10), O/U 47.5
With the possibility of Colt McCoy stepping in for Daniel Jones this week at quarterback, that makes handicapping this game a bit tougher. If you think the gap between McCoy and Jones is close, you might want to take the points with the G-Men.
On the other hand, the Seahawks will be at home, and hosting a cross-country visitor in the Giants, who could be weary after all that travel. I like the under the most here. New York is 30th in scoring and the under is 5-1 in their last six contests.
The Picks: Seahawks -10 / Under 47.5
New England Patriots (-1) at Los Angeles Chargers, O/U 47.5
This is perhaps the greatest coaching mismatch of the entire NFL season, Bill Belichick vs. Anthony Lynn. On that alone, I would feel comfortable taking the Patriots.
And then you take into consideration the playoff hunt that the Patriots are still in, and it’s kind of impossible not to go with New England here.
The Picks: Patriots -1 / Under 47.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-8.5), O/U 48
The Eagles are awful. Don’t spend too much time on this game.
The Picks: Packers -8.5 / Under 48
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5), O/U 50.5
Believe it or not, the Broncos should actually have a quarterback playing the position this week, which should be a helpful addition. But, the Chiefs crushed Denver 43-16, and are a team that seems to be clicking on all cylinders at the perfect time. I foresee another blowout this week too.
The Picks: Chiefs -13.5 / Under 50.5
Washington Football Team at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5), O/U 42
This is a number bet for me. The Steelers may be undefeated, but they are not an elite team. I think WFT can keep this to a touchdown.
The Picks: WFT +8.5 / Over 42
Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers (PK), O/U 47
This game will be played in Glendale, Arizona after the 49ers were kicked out of Levi’s Stadium because Santa Clara County tightened its Covid-19 restrictions due to surges in cases. The Bills opened this game as 2.5-point favorites, but are now down to a pick ‘em, which is interesting against a 49ers team that has Deebo Samuel and Raheem Mostert both back in the lineup.
Buffalo may be looking ahead to its Week 14 matchup with Pittsburgh, and combined with the cross-country travel, I’ll take the Niners here.
The Picks: 49ers PK / Under 47
Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5), O/U 45
The Ravens need every win they can get right now, as they look to make the wild card, and they’ll show no mercy to the visiting Cowboys. After losing to Pittsburgh, I like the Ravens here to take their frustrations out on Dallas.
The Picks: Ravens -7.5 / Under 45
Pick Six Best Bets
Raiders/Jets Under 47
Colts/Texans Under 50.5
WFT/Steelers Over 42
Broncos/Chiefs Under 50.5
Bengals/Dolphins Under 43