The Week 13 matchup between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills will feature two of the best defenses in football. Needless to say that the two quarterbacks going up against them are in for a major test: Patriots rookie Mac Jones and the Bills’ Josh Allen will try to find success versus two of the stingiest units in the game today.
If one of the two QBs can do just that, it will undoubtably boost his team’s chances to win the high-stakes AFC East battle. So, what will happen? Using our crystal ball as well as the numbers provided by DraftKings Sportsbook let’s find out what to expect on.
Mac Jones: O/U 203.5 passing yards
The Bills defense has allowed more than 203.5 passing yards in only four of its 11 games so far this season. Jones, on the other hand, has cracked that mark in nine of his 12. Who will get the better of each other on Monday?
While Buffalo will be without its number one cornerback, Tre’Davious White, it would not be surprising if New England’s QB1 failed to reach 203.5 rushing yards. The Patriots might prefer relying on their running game and misdirection concepts rather than exposing Jones to one of the best pass-rushing units in football — a plan similar to the one that allowed Indianapolis to come away with a 41-15 win two weeks ago.
Jones will still get his chances to put up the football, especially if the Bills successfully limit the run, but the game might just look similar to the one against the Carolina Panthers. In that contest, the first-round QB threw for just 139 yards.
Josh Allen: O/U 232.5 passing yards
The Patriots defense has not allowed a quarterback to throw for more than 232 yards in six straight games. Obviously, though, Allen is a different kind of passer than the Mike Whites or Baker Mayfields of this world. Just look at it from this perspective: he has failed to reach that number only twice all season long.
So, why should Monday be any different? The weather and New England’s impressive pass rush might play a role, but so could the game plan: the Patriots might prefer to go for a trade-off defense and give Buffalo chances on the ground rather than allow anything through the air.
Allen will still get his fair share of yards — he and his supporting cast are too talented for that not to happen — but the Patriots are certainly capable of holding him below 232.
Mac Jones: O/U 1.5 touchdown passes
Even though Jones has thrown two or more touchdowns in five of 12 games so far this year, it would not be surprising if he came up short of that mark on Monday. The Bills defense is one of the best in football against the pass, after all, which might lead the Patriots to drive methodically down the field before eventually putting their trust in Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson down at the goal line.
Josh Allen: O/U 1.5 touchdown passes
Allen has had multi-touchdown games in five of his 11 starts this season and he certainly is good enough to add another one to his collection on Monday night. However, the aforementioned factors projected to limit his yardage output could also come into play when it comes to his touchdown throws — especially down in the red zone.