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Research Based Mock Draft - Final Predictions


This will be my first? And final mock draft prior to next Thursday. After using many simulators in prior years and this year, I feel as though they just suck. They aren't realistic. This mock will be realistic because I will be thoroughly researching each team involved, their needs vs the board vs modern day value. I will predict some trades. Probably the one pick I will project and go for a home run with is NE's, ours, so you've been warned. This is also for my reference to see how many I get right wrong.

2021 NFL Draft Prediction:

1. JAX - Trevor Lawrence QB, Clemson

2. NYJ - Zach Wilson QB, BYU

3. SF - Justin Fields QB, Ohio St.

4. ATL - Kyle Pitts TE, Florida
- There was nothing to be said after the first 3 picks. But here Atlanta is obviously looking to move down from 4 rather than pick a non-QB. They won't be picking a QB either as they have Ryan locked for 2, likely 3 more years. Unfortunately I don't think any of these teams needs to move up, for ATL that is.

Logically you could say CAR needs TE and WR. DET needs WR. But why would they pay a premium for a non-QB when they can just sit there at 7-8 respectively and pretty much be guaranteed Smith or Waddle at each spot. So I don't see it, this is a QB trade-up unless ATL is willing to take far less from CAR (a divisional opponent) to fall back to 8. ATL is forced to take a position that is an upgrade over Hurst/Smith/JAGs for sure, that bolsters their offense and provides future talent post-Julio and post-contract decision on Ridley. They go Pitts.

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5. CIN - Penei Sewell OT, Oregon - The Bengals don't trade. It's comical how little they trade. They could definitely go J'Marr Chase here, but after 10 games in 2 seasons of a top pick in Jonah Williams (at a lukewarm level of play) combined with acquiring Riley Reiff another baseline solid but not "good" OT who can also slide inside to guard, the need is clearly bigger at OT. Clearly, after seeing their 1st overall QB's knee blow up last season.

I think the Bengals just take the lauded top OT prospect who some consider very very good, and feel fine with Higgins/Boyd/Tate manning the WR position for them. Their OL is a far bigger need.

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6. MIA - J'Marr Chase WR, LSU - Miami positioned themselves to do this. They are just going to catch a blue chip prospect in a position of need whether it's Pitts or Chase or worst case Sewell/Smith/Waddle.

7. DET - Devonta Smith WR, Alabama - Now here we are in the true swing position of the draft. I think 4 could be that as some say, but it's truly or more likely to be here at 7. I don't have anyone moving up though and Detroit needing WRs desperately simply takes the Heisman winning, probably best WR left on paper.

8. TRADE. DEN - Mac Jones QB, Alabama - So the thought process here is that: CAR bluffs Denver into thinking NE and/or others are trying to move up. Yet CAR prefers to only move down 1 spot as they have someone in mind. DEN obliges, as Elway has failed at QB seeking toolsy, big arm'd, huge, type players (Lynch, Lock, Osweiller).

Elway wants a winner now. He's a simple man with a simple plan and huge teeth. Mac Jones is a winner! So DEN gives up: 9 + 71 + a 2022 4th rounder for 8 + 151

9. CAR - Jaycee Horn CB, South Carolina - The Panthers select the local product. Prefer him to Surtain. CB is a big need for them, and they fill it here while picking up some extra capital to allow the QB needy team to move up.

10. DAL - Patrick Surtain Jr CB, Alabama - Dallas desperately needs help on defense and at CB. Happy to take Surtain here.

11. TRADE. NE - Trey Lance QB, NDSU - This is where I'm probably projecting what I want more than what I should accurately predict, but people also are clueless as to the probability of this happening. It's far more likely than fans here think. The Patriots need a QB. It's almost a must-level need according to Patriot Place. I don't think BB/McD are scared away by Lance's level of competition (see: Dugger), I don't think people understand Lance played in a pro style offense making adjustments pre-snap, going through progressions well, etc.

With Jones gone (and hey it could be the reverse here easily) the Patriots have to pounce. They cannot let the last actual "good" QB prospect fall to Philly who may take them, or let others trade up. So the Patriots at a reasonable value juncture send: 15 + 96 + 120 + a 2022 2nd rounder + a 2022 4th rounder for 11 + a 2022 5th rounder


12. PHI - Micah Parsons LB, Penn St - This may seem a bit controversial with Waddle on the board. But the Eagles drafted Jalen Reagor last year in the 1st round. They have overlapping skill-sets and while they aren't completely "redundant" they are on some level. Philly's ILB corps is trash. Their WRs and OL at least have some recent young talent. They opt to address receiving talent in the 2nd-3rd rounds rather than here.

13. LAC - Rashawn Slater OT, Northwestern - Simple. Luckily for the Chargers top OTs have slid to them here and they take Slater over Darrisaw.

14. MIN - Christian Darrisaw OT, Virginia Tech - Again, mini-run on the first tier of OTs that have fell right to teams with big needs at OT/OL. Easy selections here if they last.

15. NYG (via NE) - Kwity Paye EDGE, Michigan - Newsome is an option here, with both OTs gone the Giants go Paye. 14 and 15 between MIN/NYG could easily be flipped here in result.

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16. ARI - Greg Newsome II CB, Northwestern - Arizona's CBs, Peterson and Kirkpatrick left. Their CB play was terrible anyway, they need CB bad. They prefer Newsome to the scary back situation of Farley.

17. TRADE. IND - Jaylen Waddle WR, Alabama - A slide for Waddle to 17. Indy with their guy at QB set to takeover wants to upgrade from their aging weapons (T.Y. Hilton) and likely former failures (Parris Campbell).

18. MIA - Alijah-Vera Tucker OT, USC - A year after arguably reaching on a USC OL the Dolphins do so again. They had Robert Hunt playing RT last season, a player better suited to guard. They just need help/talent at OT so they go for a guy many see as the best OT outside of the top tier.

19. WAS - Terrace Marshall Jr WR, LSU - Too far away from the top QB prospects, the "football team" decides to improve at WR. Teven Jenkins a possible pick here as well.

20. CHI - Teven Jenkins OT, Okla. St. - OT is a need, they signed Ifedi but he's just meh.

21. LV - Trevon Moehrig S, TCU - LV needs DB talent, could go Farley but goes #1 safety

22. TEN - Rashod Bateman WR, Minn. - Titans need an outside receiver, take Bateman.

23. NYJ - Caleb Farley CB, Virginia Tech - The Jets need CB talent and have the luxury of risking the injury flags here with multiple picks from the Adams trade.

24. TRADE. SEA - Christian Barmore IDL, Alabama - After seeing Barmore fall this far they finally decided to say f--- it and just make an aggressive move to somewhat appease Wilson and compete now. Seattle sends: 56 + a 2022 1st rounder to PIT for 24

25. JAX - Alex Leatherwood OT/OG, Alabama - I think Urban Meyer and crew take the more proven SEC product than the unproven Pac-12 product in Walker Little or unproven NDSU product in Radunz. Needing to build around Lawrence, it's a bit of a reach but likely give them a quality starter somewhere along the line.

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26. CLE - Jaelen Phillips EDGE, Miami - EDGE is a need for Cleveland.

27. BAL - Zaven Collins LB, Tulsa - A good fit for Baltimore much like NE, more likely here.

28. NO - Asante Samuel Jr CB, Florida St. - Saints need DB talent, best DB left.

29. GB - Elijah Moore WR, Ole Miss - Need WR talent alongside Adams

30. BUF - Jayson Oweh EDGE, Penn St. - BPA for Buffalo with a high upside EDGE defender

31. KC - Walker Little OT, Stanford - Chiefs need OT badly, this is a risky but potentially elite OT rewarding pick

32. TB - Dillon Radunz OT, NDSU - Could be Dickerson here or Carmann or anyone. Just a guess.

Rest of Patriots Draft for fun:

46 - We trade down. After losing 96 and 120. Very likely to recoup assets and because the board is flatter around this area. Unless we love someone at 46. So in example: NE sends 46 to GB for 62 + 92

62. NE - Tay Gowan OR Eric Stokes

Consolidating the f--- out these picks here's another trade, NE moves up from 92 (via GB) by packaging 177 overall to get up to 85 via TEN

85. NE - Stone Forstyhe OT - pretty much the last decently rated OT prospect in the draft, if he's there at 85 which we're hypothetically trading up to so he is.

122 + 139 we are going to package to move up to 103 with the Rams, a team that logically wants more picks and it's perfect value on RH chart

103. NE - Divine Deablo S or Nico Collins WR - Deablo continues the trend of safety/LB types that BB loves, but he can play some coverage potentially well. And WR is a need still, X specifically which is what Collins is.

Don't care to do the rest, 188, 197, and 242 left I believe. Ben Mason with one of the picks.

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