Everyone’s favorite betting column is BACK for season two! That’s right, the Pats Pulpit Pick Six column is back and better than ever. Technical issues prevented us from giving out our picks from Week 1, but we’re coming out hot in Week 2.
Curious how we fared in Week 1? You can view my picks thanks to our friends over at Tallysight. In Week 1, I went 22-24-1 (48%). We’re aiming to improve on that in Week 2, now that we have some data on every team.
This year, we’ll be giving picks for every game, but will go a little more in-depth on our Pick Six best bets. Without further ado, here we go!
New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-3.5), O/U 40.5
ATS: WFT -3.5
Total: Under 40.5
Washington lost a close 20-16 Week 1 matchup at home against the LA Chargers, and lost starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in the process. Luckily, they get the lowly Giants in Week 2 to help them get back on track.
WFT should be able to limit the Giants’ offense in a similar fashion to what the Broncos did to the G-Men last weekend. While Taylor Heinicke should be able to put up enough points for the Football Team, it’s hard to see New York moving the ball consistently against the Washington defensive line, highlighted by Chase Young.
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers, O/U 44.5
ATS: Saints -3.5
Total: Over 44.5
New Orleans had perhaps the best win of Week 1, crushing Green Bay 38-3 behind five touchdown passes from New Orleans starting QB Jameis Winston. Now they get to face a Carolina team that squeaked by a bad Jets team, 19-14, in Week 1.
The Panthers will face a much tougher defensive challenge in Week 2, facing a New Orleans team that has finished in the top-10 of Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA in the last four seasons.
New Orleans is for real. They have a quarterback who can push it downfield again, in Winston, and a defense that can win some ballgames. Lay the points.
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-2.5), O/U 45
ATS: Bears -2.5
Total: Over 45
The Bengals surprised some when they beat Minnesota in overtime in Week 1, 27-24, and now get a Bears team that lost 34-14 on the road at the Rams.
The Bears’ loss was closer than it seemed, as the visitors hung around against a superior Rams team until the final quarter. The Bengals may be overpriced here as a result of their upset win, and the Bears’ lopsided loss.
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-12.5), O/U 48
ATS: Browns -12.5
Total: Under 48
Cleveland kept it close with Kansas City in Week 1, and showed they belong as a contender in the NFL this year. Look for them to get their first win of the year in convincing fashion against a bad Houston Texans team.
Los Angeles Rams (-4) at Indianapolis Colts, O/U 48
ATS: Rams -4
Total: Under 48
Tough start to the season for the Colts, who will look to avoid going 0-2 against the visiting Rams. Indy couldn’t get much going against Seattle last week, managing only 16 points, and the going will be tougher against a stout Rams defense.
Denver Broncos (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 45
ATS: Jaguars +6
Total: Under 45
Staying away from this one, as betting the Jaguars right now is a scary proposition with Urban Meyer’s tenure off to a shaky start. But ... are we sure the Broncos should be a six-point favorite against any team? Was a win against a terrible Giants team really worth that much?
Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins, O/U 48
ATS: Dolphins +3.5
Total: Under 48
91% of spread bets are currently on the Buffalo Bills (vs. Miami Dolphins)— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) September 15, 2021
The public loves the Bills... pic.twitter.com/As4JopyhiQ
Gulp — 91 percent of bets on the Bills?
Gimme the Dolphins, and their elite secondary, all day then.
New England Patriots (-5.5) at New York Jets, O/U 42.5
ATS: Patriots -5.5
Total: Over 42.5
Consider that the Patriots are coming off of a Week 1 loss, in which Mac Jones looked really good against a strong Miami secondary, and now get a Jets team that will be without starting left tackle Mekhi Becton, along with Jets safety Lamarcus Joyner also out.
The Patriots still put up 393 yards of total offense against Miami, and now face a weaker Jets defense. On offense, New York will struggle against a New England pass rush that should feast on rookie quarterback Zach Wilson, with Becton out for an extended period of time. Zach Wilson was the fourth-most pressured QB in Week 1, and that should only get worse in Week 2.
The Patriots, under Bill Belichick, are 21-6 against rookie quarterbacks. Expect Zach Wilson to have plenty of trouble staying clean on Sunday, as the pissed off Patriots get a big win on the road to give Mac Jones his first NFL victory.
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles, O/U 49.5
ATS: Eagles +3.5
Total: Over 49.5
This should be one of the best games of the weekend. Are the Eagles for real this season? They will be if they can get past a 49ers team that rolled past Detroit in Week 1. Give me the points if you can get more than a field goal’s edge.
Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5), O/U 47
ATS: Steelers -5.5
Total: Under 47
Still not convinced the Raiders are for real after their thriller of an overtime win against Baltimore on Monday night. Good luck moving the ball against what looks to be a top-2 defense in the NFL this year in Pittsburgh.
Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5), O/U 51
ATS: Cardinals -4.5
Total: Under 51
I SHOULD take the Vikings, after being upset in overtime by the Bengals in Week 1. Mike Zimmer’s seat could be getting hot early in the season, and the Vikings really could use a win here. But going against Kyler Murray on offense and after the havoc that Chandler Jones wreaked on defense against the Titans O-line, it’s hard to have any faith in the Vikings here.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12.5), O/U 52
ATS: Falcons +12.5
Total: Over 52
The Buccaneers’ defense has a weakness in its secondary with Sean Murphy-Bunting dislocating his elbow in Week 1. The Falcons are well-positioned to take advantage of that weakness through the air. Tampa will win, but don’t be surprised if this is a bit closer than expected.
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers (-3), O/U 55
ATS: Cowboys +3
Total: Over 55
Vegas is making it tough to take the over with a sky-high total, but these offenses should both still be able to put up points against each other. Justin Herbert has shown he is already an elite quarterback in this league in just his second year, and Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense will be motivated to get a win after a tough Week 1 loss to the defending champs.
This should be a close, back-and-forth game, but three points is too much to pass up for a team that went toe-to-toe with the defending champs in Week 1.
Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5), O/U 54
ATS: Titans +5.5
Total: Under 54
Rough Week 1 loss for Tennessee against Arizona, but 5.5 points is a little bit of an overreaction after just one week. Mike Vrabel and his team will be desperate for a win here.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Baltimore Ravens, O/U 55
ATS: Chiefs -3.5
Total: Under 55
Would have been nice to get this number when it was under a field goal at -2.5 in favor of Kansas City, but I’m still not gonna pass up betting on Patrick Mahomes laying just over a field goal.
Patrick Mahomes does well against aggressive blitzing defenses, which is just what Wink Martindale’s defense does in Baltimore. Making matters worse is the fact that Marcus Peters will be out for Baltimore. You need all the cornerbacks you can get when you’re playing the Chiefs.
With a weakened run game and a secondary that is a cornerback short, the Ravens don’t have what it takes to keep up with KC right now.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-11), O/U 48.5
ATS: Packers -11
Total: Under 48.5
As Aaron Rodgers would say, just R-E-L-A-X. The Packers are going to be OK. One week is not the be-all, end-all. Expect Rodgers and Davante Adams to feast on Detroit’s defense, like they always do, especially at home.
Pick Six Best Bets
Bills/Dolphins Under 48
Texans/Browns Under 48