FanPost

The Case for Mac Jones in 2023


First, some facts.

  • The top teams in the AFC are stacked at the QB position. Whether you prefer PFF grades or the eye test, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert are in the elite category. Some strong correlation here to suggest having an elite QB is a requirement if you want to be a contender.
  • The NFC, however, isn't following the same trend. Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott are fine players, but not in the same realm as their AFC counterparts. Jalen Hurts could move into the elite category some day, but he's not there yet. The Niners won most of their games with Jimmy G, and are now rolling with something called a "brock purdy."
  • Whether you're an owner, player, or fan, the goal is winning it all. Having a pretty good team, making a playoff run, and falling short isn't what we're here for. The Packers are a good example of this; Aaron Rodgers is unquestionably one of the best QBs of this (or any) generation, yet during his 14+ years of spectacular play, Green Bay has just one ring on one appearance. The same can be said of Drew Brees and his 19 years with the Chargers/Saints.
  • Brady had a lot to do with suppressing great QBs in the AFC, but Rodgers and Brees only faced him once each in the playoffs, so they don't have any such excuse.

And one opinion:

  • Brady also is responsible for setting an impossibly high standard of success. It's extremely unlikely any single player will win 3 Super Bowls with the same team, let alone 6. A dynasty consisting of 3 Lombardi's in a 5-year span is a more realistic standard of greatness, and anything more is a pipe dream. Winning one Super Bowl every decade or so is ok -- and better than most fanbases get -- but not really up to expectations.

So how could you build a dynasty in the NFL, and what could Mac Jones possibly have to do with it? Let's take a look at the Super Bowl winners -- and their all-important quarterbacks -- in the salary cap era. I'm throwing out 1994 because San Francisco got into some contract shenanigans, and one Steve Young win isn't going to alter these numbers at all. For our purposes, I'm going to categorize the Lombardi-hoisting quarterbacks into one of four categories:

  • Rookies (QBs playing on their rookie contracts)
  • Cornerstones (QBs playing on a long-term contract or extension, typically on the team that drafted them. The guys GMs decide to build a team around.)
  • Mercenaries (QBs playing for a team that either traded for them or signed them in free agency. The guys GMs go out and get when they are "only a quarterback away" from contending.)
  • Tom Brady (QBs named Tom Brady. In the future this category could include elite QBs playing on team-friendly contracts so their GMs can sign better players.)
Season SB Winning Team Wining QB Category
1995 XXX Cowboys Aikman Cornerstone
1996 XXXI Packers Favre Cornerstone
1997 XXXII Broncos Elway Cornerstone
1998 XXXIII Broncos Elway Cornerstone
1999 XXXIV Rams Warner Rookie
2000 XXXV Ravens Dilfer Mercenary
2001 XXXVI Patriots Brady Brady (Rookie)
2002 XXXVII Bucs Johnson Mercenary
2003 XXXVIII Patriots Brady Brady
2004 XXXIX Patriots Brady Brady
2005 XL Steelers Ben Rookie
2006 XLI Colts Peyton Cornerstone
2007 XLII Giants Eli Cornerstone
2008 XLIII Steelers Ben Rookie
2009 XLIV Saints Brees Cornerstone
2010 XLV Packers Rodgers Cornerstone
2011 XLVI Giants Eli Cornerstone
2012 XLVII Ravens Flacco Rookie
2013 XLVIII Seahawks Wilson Rookie
2014 XLIX Patriots Brady Brady
2015 50 Broncos Peyton Mercenary
2016 LI Patriots Brady Brady
2017 LII Eagles Foles Rookie*
2018 LIII Patriots Brady Brady
2019 LIV Chiefs Mahomes Rookie
2020 LV Bucs Brady Brady (Mercenary)
2021 LVI Rams Stafford Mercenary

* Foles was not on a rookie deal, but the Eagles were employing the "win with a cheap rookie" strategy with Carson Wentz, and were paying Foles less than rookie money. Instead of creating a "Backups" category solely for Nick Foles, I'm going with the spirit of what Philadelphia intended for their roster-building.

One thing that jumps out is that building a team around a proven, home-grown QB started out as the clear winning approach in the late 90's, with Aikman, Favre, and Elway winning those first 4 Super Bowls until Kurt Warner burst onto the scene. Then things got really wacky with middling players like Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson winning it all (calling them mercenaries is a bit of a stretch), and some kid named Tom Brady one-upping Warner's meteoric rise.

Then it was back to the status quo, as Brady (now a Cornerstone guy himself) won a couple more, and along with Peyton, Eli x2, Brees, and Rodgers dominated the 2000's, interspersed with two wins by Ben Roethlisberger on his rookie contract.

Since then, that tried-and-true strategy is on a ten year drought.

The Seahawks thought they had "the next dynasty" with Russ and the Legion of Boom. Then Wilson's salary kicked in, and they were never heard from again. The clock ran out on Mahomes last year, and his cap hit skyrocketed to $35.8M this year, and ranges from $42M - $51M after that. 2022 is possibly KC's last decent shot unless they hit the lottery on multiple draft picks. Josh Allen's cap hit is a reasonable $16.4M this year but escalates to $39.8M next year, and then into the $40's. Buffalo's window is closing soon.

Brady was great not only because he was talented, but because he didn't soak up such a large percentage of New England's cap. He made the job impossible for all other GMs. Maybe things will change once he retires, but it's worth noting that of the 4 QBs he's beaten in the Super Bowl this decade, 3 were on rookie deals and only Matt Ryan would fall into the Cornerstone category.

So if I'm a GM, I'm not looking for a mercenary that might net me a single championship. For every one Stafford-to-Rams, there are a dozen Wilson-to-Broncos. Instead, I'm looking to draft a solid QB with whatever first round pick I have (to get that 5th year option), putting as many playmakers around him as possible, and letting him walk in free agency. For the Patriots in 2023, that's still Mac Jones (or Bailey Zappe if you prefer, they're probably interchangeable). I'm not spending another first rounder on a QB when there are so many other slots to fill, and Mac might be Joe Flacco/2015 Peyton/Nick Foles caliber with an actual Offensive Coordinator. Or he'll be garbage again in 2023 and I'll have that much more draft capital to load up for 2024.

While fans might covet those Madden-cover QBs, and GMs are tempted to give big, fat contracts to lock up a Mahomes, Allen, Wilson, or (lol) Flacco, so far in the salary cap era only 2 Cornerstone guys have won multiple rings for their team: John Elway 25 years ago, and the monster at the end of this book: that infernal hayseed, the thorn in every Pats fan's side, the NFL's own Grover.... lovable, furry old Eli.

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