Road to the 2023 NFL Draft: Positional Value Part III

Part III of the draft analysis on positional value. This segment will look at OG and RB. Most likely to see the lowest ADP and investments by teams we'd imagine, but we'll see what the results say.



Player | Position

1. Zack Martin | 16th overall pick, 1st round
2. Joel Bitonio | 35th overall pick, 2nd round
3. Chris Lindstrom | 14th overall pick, 1st round
4. Michael Onwenu | 182nd overall pick, 6th round
5. Quentin Nelson | 6th overall pick, 1st round
6. Joe Thuney | 78th overall pick, 3rd round
7. Teven Jenkins | 39th overall pick, 2nd round
8. Elgton Jenkins | 44th overall pick, 2nd round
9. Isaac Semaulo | 79th overall pick, 3rd round
10. Wyatt Teller | 166th overall pick, 6th round
11. Alijah-Vera Tucker | 14th overall pick, 1st round
12. Shaq Mason | 131st overall pick, 4th round
13. Trey Smith | 227th overall pick, 6th round
14. Robert Hunt | 39th overall pick, 2nd round
15. Kevin Zeitler | 27th overall pick, 1st round

Honorable Mentions: Landon Dickerson, Alex Cappa, Zion Johnson, James Daniels


ADP: 73.13

1st rounders: 5
2nd rounders: 4
3rd rounders: 2
4th rounders: 1
5th rounders: 0
6th rounders: 3
7th rounders: 0
UDFAs: 0


Analysis: The results are pretty surprising. I haven't explained away any statistics to this point, or much, but I think one thing needs to be stated. Which is that some prospects are seen as tackles or potentially OTs, and it might have or probably did increase the draft position here overall.

Even with that said, out of this ~top 15 slice of players there are a lot of high investments into pure guards. And we just saw two recently in Green/Johnson last draft. As a tangent Green was awful this season, but Zion was decently good. Strange, another 1st round guard for NE had mixed results but was below average overall.

There is a very odd distribution of picks here, perhaps the most or near WR/CB in terms of 1st/2nd round. A very high rate. The results clearly show that NFL teams do in fact invest into the guard position, whether that is optimal or not is another question.



Players | Position

1. Christian McCaffery | 8th overall pick, 1st round
2. Derrick Henry | 45th overall pick, 2nd round
3. Nick Chubb | 35th overall pick, 2nd round
4. Josh Jacobs | 24th overall pick, 1st round
5. Aaron Jones | 182nd overall pick, 5th round
6. Rhamondre Stevenson | 121st, 4th round
7. Tony Pollard | 128th overall pick, 4th round
8. Austin Ekeler | UDFA
9. Saquon Barkley | 2nd overall pick, 1st round
10. Joe Mixon | 48th overall pick, 2nd round
11. Alvin Kamara | 67th overall pick, 3rd round
12. Travis Etienne Jr | 25th overall pick, 1st round
13. Dalvin Cook | 41st pick, 2nd round
14. Dameon Pierce | 107th pick, 4th round
15. James Conner | 105th pick, 3rd round

Honorable Mentions: Breece Hall, Miles Sanders, Najee Harris, Kenneth Walker


ADP (w/o UDFA): 67.00

ADP (w/ UDFA as "263"): 80.07


Analysis: Again somewhat surprising to see the ADP here and investments made. But adding insight into the numbers, I would simply say that there are just dumb teams and GMs like Dave Gettleman, who have no concept of positional value.

Still even with that said, the ADP is significantly lower (with or without the lone UDFA counted) than WR/CB to an extent that we can see investments mirroring positional value.


Conclusion & Checkpoint:

There are simply inept GMs and members of NFL franchises since this is an old boys club and teams are not operating optimally. You should be fired on the spot for drafting a RB 2nd overall like Gettleman did in the 2018 NFL draft, that is a pathetic attempt at doing your job. Absolutely clueless.

But sadly, even good GMs and "good" operations are making very dumb picks such as Kenyon Green 15th overall into a team that is clearly in a rebuild (who just blundered the 1st overall spot for a pointless win, and are the second worst team in the NFL this year). And that player has looked horrible thus far.

Or Belichick, once considered the best GM in the league for over a decade, reaching for a guard at the tail end of the 1st round into a team that isn't quite in the spot HOU was, but also isn't a credible contender. We've seen this out of BB before with Sony Michel, a RB, in the 1st round albeit late 1st. That selection is gray and blurry due to the result that ensued (an immediate SB win), but that player's career and result individually x draft position cannot be mistaken as anything other than a failure.

At this point this analysis only shows ADP and where investments are made on the slice of the top 15 guys at each position after the 2022 season. But I'll assert that TE is different than off-ball LB, RB, or OG. I believe there is a difference there. Clearly there is lower positional value, but a top flight TE can affect winning far, far more than those other three positions could. Which makes it odd that TE is drafted so low. Is there simply a shortage of NFL caliber and blue chip TE prospects? Can NFL teams not reliably evaluate that position relative to others?


ADP Checkpoint:

WR: 50.26

CB: 30.77 / 61.73 (non-UDFA / UDFA)

TE: 72.53

LB: 82.00 / 106.80 (non-UDFA / UDFA)

OG: 73.13

RB: 67.00 / 80.07 (non-UDFA/ UDFA)

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