There was a bit of debate going on for the hit rate of WRs in recent years in the draft. This is a 5 year sample size, which I feel is adequate enough and more relevant to drafting a WR in 2023, but a 10 year sample would be fine as well.


Inherently there will be subjective analysis, it's impossible to not evaluate this without it. This is where anyone can insert their opinion and we can come to a consensus on some of these qualitative values. The important values in this analysis are as follows:

- Draft Selection (Round, Pick)
- "Good" calculated as True or False
- "N/A" where it isn't justified to conclude whether a player is "good"
- "Gray" where there are mitigating circumstances beyond boolean/binary logic


Good or bad is a simple concept. We might have differing opinions on a player i.e. Ridley, Chark, Watkins (not in this sample), but we all can grasp that easily. But "Gray" despite the simplistic name is far more complicated, and this is where there is no objective measurement to quantify. N/A is pretty much in between, where's it's obvious someone such as Jameson Williams should not be judged "good or bad" after the 2022 season with requisite logic/reason behind it.


Feel free to disagree and single out any entries you think are wrong or should be altered. Here is the last 5 NFL drafts for the WR position:

2022:

Good = 5 / 38.46%

Bad = 8 / 61.54%

N/A = 6 / 46.15%

Gray = 13 / 100%
---
2021:

Good = 3 / 30%

Bad = 7 / 70%

N/A = 2 / 20%

Gray = 4 / 40%
---

2020:

Good = 7 / 54.05%

Bad = 6 / 46.15%

N/A = 1 / 7.7%

Gray = 2 / 15.4%
---

2019:

Good = 4 / 44.44%

Bad = 5 / 55.55%

N/A = 0 / 0%

Gray = 0 / 0%
---

2018:

Good = 5 / 71.43%

Bad = 2 / 28.6%

N/A = 0 %

Gray = 3 / 43%
---

Further Analysis:

Now to interject, the relevance shouldn't just be the top 64 picks which is what is laid out here. The net is a bit too wide, so here would be the "good" hit rate on the top 15 picks of the draft over the past 5 years:

Top 15 picks -

Good = 7 / 77.77%

Bad = 1 / 11.11%

N/A = 1 / 11.11%

Here I went ahead and removed Jameson Williams from the good category preemptively, a hot take and oversight tbh but I'm leaving it in the table, but also removed him from the "FALSE" or "bad" pool, instead putting him into an N/A category alone where he belongs. Henry Ruggs happens to be the only top 15 pick who hasn't panned out or isn't pending (Williams) in the past five years. Absurd really, a 77.77% hit rate assuming Jameson Williams busts. But only a 9 player sample through those 5 years to be fair.

Top 50 picks?

Good = 20 / 57.14%

Bad = 15 / 42.9%

N/A = 5 / 14.3%

This is with Jameson Williams counting as good and N/A simultaneously. So without him counting, the "good" rate would be 54.3% which is more accurate currently. Still the N/A rate consists of Jameson Williams and - Burks, Robinson, Toney, and Metchie.

If anything the data here is skewed to make some players look bad in the short-term as Dotson, Watson, (Pierce prior to the cut down to top 15 and 50) were all labeled as "FALSE" or "bad", without an N/A qualification. They existed in the "Gray" area.


Discussion:

Either way you try and slice it the hit rate on WRs in the past 5 drafts has been pretty damn good. Obviously the farther into the draft you are the harder it is to hit, that goes for any position. But there's also some gems late like Amon Ra recently, McLaurin from 2019, Diontae Johnson, Renfrow toss him in, but it's clearly very hard to find guys past the top 50, 70, 100 picks. It just is.

The idea of waiting to draft WR is archaic. This league has changed and teams go for that talent early, you have to astronomically lucky to find a guy Kupp late, or the equivalent of what Edelman is in the later rounds. Those are two slots as well, Meyers, etc.

In terms of the data here, I think the most common areas of debate will certainly be - Putting Jameson Williams down as a hit (which I already amended anyway), DJ Chark down as a hit - and well for his pick he certainly is if we were to sliding scale it. Claypool maybe?

Beyond that I think it would be mostly unreasonable as this sample is being extremely harsh on guys i.e. Pierce, Watson, Dotson, Burks, Skyy Moore - are all considered "bad" in the data. Toney, both Moores from 2021 - bad. Shenault "bad". Van Jefferson also counted as "bad". Hardman listed as bad as well.

There could even be a gray area for guys like this in terms of outcome. There's even more nuance, but for sure no one is mistaking these guys for being star receivers (2022 rookies aside). Well either way, if anyone reads this feel free to cast your opinion. But here's my final take.

Hot take:

WR is the most important position besides QB and if you refuse to invest in WR (early and often) in today's league you're a terrible GM.