The New England Patriots enter Sunday Night Football against the Miami Dolphins as 2.5-point underdogs, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. While they may be underdogs, expect Bill Belichick and Bill O’Brien to come out looking to attack the weaknesses of this Miami defense.
How the game eventually unfold will be seen, but here is our best-guess estimation from a prop bet perspective.
Ezekiel Elliot, Touchdown Anytime (+260): This was the only one I didn’t get last week. So, I’m doubling down.
Miami’s run defense was awful last week. The Dolphins allowed 233 yards on the ground, and Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, and Joshua Kelley all had rushing touchdowns for the Los Angeles Chargers in the season opener. I will happily take plus money for New England’s goal line back to score against a putrid rush defense.
Mac Jones, Over 6.5 Rushing Yards (-110): While Mac Jones is no elite rushing threat, he won’t hesitate to move the chains on the ground if the defense gives it to him. Jones picked up 15 yards on a pair of carries against Philadelphia in the opener last week. Meanwhile, the Dolphins allowed Justin Herbert to rush for 17 yards last Sunday.
Depending on who suits up on the offensive line for the Patriots on Sunday, Mac Jones may find himself in many situations where he needs to scramble. If that happens, he should surpass this total.
Plus, who doesn’t love rooting for some QB rushing yards?
Rhamondre Stevenson, Over 75 Rushing Yards (+260): If you couldn’t tell, there’s a theme this week. We’re staying on the ground for this one, the most aggressive prop of the three.
Miami allowed two running backs to pass the 75-yard mark last week. That’s why we’re taking the alternate line of 75+ yards to get a little more bang for our buck. Obviously, there are concerns about New England’s offensive line. But Miami’s defense was horrendous at defending the run last week, and it’s an area where Vic Fangio defenses can really struggle without the right personnel.
With a bad run defense in front of them and Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the other side, I suspect Bill Belichick will want to control the clock and slow the game. Expect the Patriots to ride Stevenson in this one in an attempt to keep Miami’s offense on the sideline.