Sunday Patriots Notes: Decision makers need to find common ground before the draft

The NFL annual meeting is in the books, the pro day cycle is close to being wrapped up, and teams are knee-deep in draft preparation. Things are quite busy in the supposed “offseason” and in order to stay on top of everything going on, here is our weekly wrap-up of New England Patriots-related thoughts and observations as well as things not covered elsewhere on Pats Pulpit so far.

Welcome to our Sunday Patriots Notes.

1. New England’s decision makers need to get on the same page for the draft: As owners of the third overall selection in the draft, the Patriots are in prime position to add some blue-chip talent. The team, of course, is in dire need of that especially at the quarterback position.

Whether a QB’s name will be on it or not, before the draft card will be handed in the team has plenty of homework left to be done. One crucial part of it: getting everybody on the same page, as head coach Jerod Mayo said.

“One thing that Alonzo Highsmith, one of our scouts, told me — and I truly believe it, he’s been doing it for a long time — all the bad picks that he’s seen, it’s really been where everyone wasn’t on the same page,” Mayo said at the NFL annual meeting in Orlando, FL. “You would hope that you can get everyone on the same page — coaches, and also scouts. If you have one person drafting, that’s kind of tough.”

Under their previous regime, the Patriots’ head coach and quasi-general manager was the same person. Six-time Super Bowl winner Bill Belichick had earned the benefit of the doubt, but it is clear that sub-par drafting contributed to the team’s inability to stay competitive over the last couple of years in particular.

Obviously, Belichick did not handle the entire draft process himself — he too had a sizable staff of scouts and other executives supporting him. In the end, however, he was the singular point of overlap between the personnel department and the coaching staff.

In Year 1 following Belichick’s departure, there is no all-encompassing presence like him. Jerod Mayo is leading the coaching staff, with director of scouting Eliot Wolf sitting atop the scouting and personnel departments.

As Mayo pointed out, however, there are more people involved even though the final goal — getting on the same page — remains the same.

“It’s not just Eliot and myself,” he said. “Going to collaboration, we have great scouts across the board and everyone has their different opinions. You want to start with hearing those opinions, but at some time, you kind of have to shrink the group and come to some common ground. We’re close.”

2. What could a trade down from No. 3 look like? The Patriots could decide to stay at No. 3 overall and pick a player, with quarterbacks Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels the most realistic candidates. However, a trade also is a possibility — something Jerod Mayo also pointed out.

What such a trade would look like is anybody’s guess at this point in time. As an analysis by adamjt13.blogspot.com shows, however, there is some historical precedent.

• 1997: 3, 63 = 11, 41, 70, 100
• 2000: 3 = 12, 24, 119, 154
• 2012: 3 = 4, 118, 139, 211
• 2013: 3 = 12, 42
• 2018: 3 = 6, 37, 49, 2019 2nd
• 2021: 3 = 12, 2022 1st, 2022 3rd, 2023 1st
• 2023: 3, 105 = 12, 33, 2024 1st, 2024 3rd

Every situation and year is different, and what was true for 2013 clearly was not true for 2023 in terms of compensation. Still, those seven prior trades do serve as a frame of reference when it comes to potential trade parameters.

3. Pressure-to-sack rate a concern for Jayden Daniels? The aforementioned Jayden Daniels might be the second best quarterback prospect in the class, and looks like a relatively safe bet to come off the board within the first three selections in the draft — possibly even landing in New England at No. 3. But while there is a lot to like about the Heisman Trophy Winner, there are some questions as well.

One of those is his pressure-to-sack rate measuring just how many quarterback pressures actually resulted in takedowns. Daniels checks in at 20.2 percent, with not a single season of his college career below the 20 percent mark.

Needless to say, the company he is in is less than encouraging:

It goes without saying that this one statistic, as concerning as it may look, is not a death knell for Daniels by any means. However, it is another piece to the puzzle a team like the Patriots at least has to put into consideration.

4. Mac Jones is a cautionary tale for the Patriots: The last time the Patriots drafted a quarterback in the first round was off to an encouragingly hot start: Mac Jones had an impressive rookie season, and led the team back to the playoffs right away. Since that 2021 campaign, however, the arrow has been pointing down.

Due to a mix of uneven development and a constantly changing supporting cast both on and off the field, Jones never became the franchise cornerstone he seemed destined to be. Earlier this month, he was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

For his now-former team, the lessons learned from the Mac Jones era are a cautionary tale.

“Mac Jones came in, had a lot of success early on,” said Jerod Mayo. “We always talk about that jump from Year 1 to Year 2 and how significant that year is, or that bridge is to Year 2. And I would say it was a combination of things that really kind of hindered that growth in the second year.

“One thing I did learn about that process was, as you continue to develop a quarterback, it’s not only the players you put around him, but also the coaches that you put around this guy. And not only the coaches, but it can go all the way to the ops teams and things like that to support a guy who plays the most important position in sports. And to ask him as a rookie to come in … it’s always going to be tough. And then you get to Year 2, you want to see that jump, you get to Year 3, you would want to see success like this straight line [up], but realistically, that’s not what it is. It’s like a bunch of ups and downs, and I think just supporting a quarterback is one of the biggest things.”

5. Marte Mapu will continue to work from the safety spot in 2024: With Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers still around, the top of the Patriots’ safety position will look the same in 2024. However, the depth behind them is a question given that neither Jalen Mills nor Adrian Phillips will be part of the group.

So, who will be safety No. 3? One player to keep an eye on is Marte Mapu. Despite his skillset suggesting he might also play as an off-ball linebacker, the Patriots seem determined to keep him in the safety group for the time being.

“Marte Mapu, he’s one of those guys that we talk about versatility,” said Jerod Mayo. “He’s one of those guys, that he can play big star. He can play safety, and he can also can play linebacker. Now, he’ll start in the safety room, and we’ll work our way down from there.”

The Patriots took the same approach when Mapu was still a third-round rookie in 2023. His development will be fascinating to see.

6. Patriots’ 2023 injury issues, quantified: The Patriots suffered from bad quarterback play in 2023, but their issues ran far deeper. One of the most impactful problems the team had was its sheer volume of injuries on both sides of the ball.

Adjusted games lost, a metric introduced by Aaron Schatz of FTN Fantasy, aims to quantify that volume in a sensible way:

Adjusted games lost doesn’t just add up total injuries. It accounts for both absent players and those playing at less than 100%, and it specifically measures injuries to expected starters and important situational players rather than little-used backups. As such, AGL estimates the impact of injuries on teams and provides a comparable total that often succinctly explains why teams improved or declined from one year to the next.

So, where did the 2023 Patriots land? Near the bottom of the list.

New England ranked 31st in the NFL last season with an AGL score of 128.0 — up a whooping 71.5 compared to 2022, when the team ranked 11th. While the offense ranked 30th this year (64.2), the defense finished dead-last (63.8) as the most injured unit in the league.

Not all of New England’s struggles last season can be traced back directly to the high number of injuries. That said, you also cannot accurately tell the story of the 2023 team without mentioning them and the major impact they had.

7. Bub Means a late-round wide receiver to watch: The wide receiver position is a top-3 need on the Patriots’ roster right now, but addressing it may take more than one player. If the team indeed opts to double-dip, Pittsburgh’s Bub Means is a late-round prospect to keep in mind due to his connection to New England’s coaching staff.

Tiquan Underwood, the Patriots’ current assistant wide receivers coach, coached Means the last two years. Last week, with the school’s pro day underway, Underwood returned to campus — and to his former pupil in particular.

“I’ve seen all the work that Bub has put in the last two years. I was fortunate enough to coach him over the last two,” he told Pitt sideline reporter Donnie Rae Blackwell.

“Great leader, great work ethic, great person. To see him finally be this close to his dream — playing in the National Football League — is unbelievable. Wish him nothing but the best, and he’s earned everything that’s come his way,” Underwood continued.

“You never know how this thing plays out, but I would love for an opportunity to coach him again. You just never know. We’re just evaluating all the guys in this class. It’s cool because I know him personally; it hits a little different. I know his mental makeup, I know who he is as a person, so I’ll be able to convey that to the scouts, to the GM. But I’m just wishing him the best.”

As a redshirt senior in 2023, Means caught 41 passes for 721 yards and four touchdowns. He is projected as a Day 3 selection.

8. New England’s local pro day is starting to take shape: The Patriots will not just invite some of the biggest names in the draft to their facility over the coming weeks, but also some local prospects: they will again hold a local pro day for players from New England colleges or those having played high school football in the area.

So far, three invited players are known. Edge Brian Abraham (Albany) as well as cornerbacks Jason Maitre (Wisconsin) and Randall Harris (New Hampshire) will participate in the session.

The workout will take place on Thursday, April 4.

9. Patriots players are no fans of the hip-drop tackle ban: The NFL voted on a variety of rule and byline changes this week, with banning the hip-drop tackle among the most notable — and most controversial. The proposal passed the two-thirds majority needed, meaning it will be put in effect for the upcoming season.

While done in the name of player safety, the rule change itself does not have the support of the NFL Players Association which openly lobbied to keep it legal. Two of the Patriots’ locker room leaders also do not appear to be fans of the change.

“There’s been a lot of rule changes since I came into the league, right?” center David Andrews said back in December. “We used to be able to cut on the perimeter. [Defenders] used to be able to cut us on the perimeter. You’re talking about this drop tackle that people are talking about — you’re going to eventually take away everything in the game. It’s the defense’s job to tackle guys, and I don’t think people are doing that with malicious intent.

“Eventually, you keep taking away certain plays, taking away certain plays, taking away this, taking away that, what’s going to be left of the game? Look, it’s an unfortunate reality of this game and no one wants to see that. Guys on other teams don’t want to see guys get hurt. We don’t want to see guys get hurt. But it’s an unfortunate reality of playing in the NFL — playing football at any level.”

Andrews’ response came in light of teammate Rhamondre Stevenson suffering a season-ending ankle injury in Week 13 agains the Los Angeles Chargers on a hip-drop tackle. It seems unlikely his stance has drastically changed give the players union still supporting the technique.

Safety Jabrill Peppers, meanwhile, went on a rant on the platform formerly known as Twitter to express his thoughts.

“We know what we sign up to do,” Peppers wrote. “Owners are just tired of their stars getting hurt playing a dangerous game. Most of these changes favor the offense. ...

“Yes I’m pissed off, soft-ass league they got me in. Can’t even play like the guys I grew up idolizing. Just put flags on us and everyone can play until they’re 40. ... You have to be okay with the fact you can possibly be injured. It’s a violent collision sport, we aren’t bird watching.”

10. Setting up the week ahead: The pro day cycle is coming to an end this week, with Yale on Wednesday the only relatively noticeable school left. Other than that, teams will transition to Top-30 visits as the final piece of their evaluations and hold local pro days. As noted above, the Patriots’ is coming up on Thursday.

Teams with new head coaches also are allowed to start their offseason workout program on Monday. However, the Patriots under Jerod Mayo have decided not to do that: they will kick things off one week later, on April 8.