Bill Belichick has been the best and most successful head coach in the NFL for the past two decades: nobody has led his team to more wins, nobody has gotten the most out of his players. And yet, he has been named as the league’s Coach of the Year on just three occasions (2003, 2007, 2010) as the trophy now no longer honors the best coach in pro football and rather the one whose team made the biggest jump from one year to the next.
This is why the likes of Mike Smith (2008), Jason Garrett (2016) and Matt Nagy (2018) all won it despite Belichick clearly being the superior coach in all three seasons. In order for the New England Patriots’ head coach to win the award, therefore, he needs to coach at a level that stands out even before the backdrop of his own legendary achievements — something the oddsmakers think could happen during the 2020 season.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Belichick is the favorite to win the Coach of the Year Trophy at the moment:
Bill Belichick (New England Patriots): +1000
Mike McCarthy (Dallas Cowboys): +1400
Kliff Kingsbury (Arizona Cardinals): +2000
Frank Reich (Indianapolis Colts): +2000
Mike Vrabel (Tennessee Titans): +2000
Belichick being the favorite is not necessarily a surprise. Not only is he the best and most experienced head coach in football, he also is in a more challenging situation than he has been in in quite some time: with future Hall of Famer Tom Brady leaving the team in unrestricted free agency, Belichick will need to show that he and his club can win with a new starting quarterback (likely second-year man Jarrett Stidham) under center. If that happens, it would not be a surprise to see him win the award.
That said, you should probably expect it to go to someone like Matt Patricia for lifting his team from 3-12 to 8-8 or something.