A Patriots win would help them stay atop the division and go up two games plus the head-to-head tiebreaker. While New England would mathematically still be able to lose the AFC East crown — but not its spot in the playoff tournament — such a development would be highly unlikely.
A Bills win, on the other hand, would help them tie the Patriots at 9-6 but give them the advantage thanks to a better division record.
According to the oddsmakers, the first scenario is more likely: according to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Patriots enter Week 16 as 2.5-point favorites to win the game. Given that New England already won the first matchup between the two clubs, and still owns a better overall record (9-5 vs. 8-6) this does not come as a surprise.
Still, the numbers show that a close matchup is expected. That is especially true given that home field advantage is usually worth three points.